Monday, December 7, 2009
Friday, December 4, 2009
OPEN POSITIONS NOW : LONG USD/SFR 3 LOTS AT 1.0078
SHORT XAU/USD 500 OZ AT 1186,50 STOP 1210 (WHICH WE REENTERED)
FOR THE MOMENT LETS TAKE OUR EXPOSURE DOWN AND BOOK A LITTLE PROFIT
LETS COVER 3 LOTS EUR/USD AT 1.4885 FOR 72 POINTS PROFIT. THAT'S
YIELD WISE 216 POINTS ON OUR 100K DEPOSIT! IT TOOK SOME PATIENCE BUT WE
SIMPLY HAD TO GET OUT OF THOSE OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS!!
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Saturday, November 28, 2009
source: Chuck Buttler of Everbank
Why America Is Flat Broke
…And How to Shield Yourself from Miserable U.S. Economy, Soaring Deficits, and the Falling Dollar (In Three Days or Less!)
Good day... And Welcome to a Special Weekend Edition of the Pfennig!
Lately, several of you have asked me for the full story on the debt situation here in the United States.
It seems you all want to know how that debt situation affects YOU, the average tax-paying American waltzing down Main Street.
Of course, long-term readers know that’s something I cover fairly often here in the Pfennig. But I never have time to give you the FULL story...with all the gory details about the bankrupt Uncle Sam, TRILLION dollar debts, and the sinking dollar.
More importantly, I never have enough time to explain how you can get out of the U.S. dollar fast...so you can escape the rising deficit situation here in the U.S.
Now, I hate to interrupt your lovely weekend, but a special Saturday issue seemed like the perfect opportunity to cover all that.
So if you’re game, grab some coffee, and we’ll jump right in!
Let’s start with some facts first.
As of today, the U.S. National Debt is nearly $12 Trillion dollars. That’s a monster in itself, but it’s nothing compared to what the U.S. really owes…
Do You Have $344,000 to Pay Uncle Sam? Well You Should.
You see most people have no idea what the U.S. government owes on “unfunded obligations.” That’s government-ese for entitlement programs like Medicare, Social Security etc.
Right now, the total unfunded obligations sits at $106 Trillion dollars! That’s more than 780% MORE than the “national debt!”
Now, let’s do a little math…
If you charged Americans for the national debt, each citizen would have to shell out $38,940. If you just charged taxpayers, that tab would climb to $104,000 per person.
Our nation’s Total Assets now stand at $74 Trillion dollars, or $240,000 per citizen.
Now add in the “unfunded obligations” at $106 Trillion, and every citizen would have to shell out $344,000 to keep us afloat.
In other words…as a country, we are flat-broke!
By the way, if you don't believe me, you can go to the National Debt Clock website and see for yourself. But I warn you don’t go there if you have a weak stomach.
How in the World Did Our Debts Reach This High?
This deficit spending all began in the 80’s. However, at that time, the government was much smaller than it is today.
Let’s talk about some fallacies that exist when people talk about deficit spending that began in the 80’s in the Reagan administration…
Ronald Reagan increased the deficit by 35% in eight years, or $37 Billion per year. At the time it seemed like a lot. After all, the U.S. was a surplus nation at the time. In fact, economists viewed this 35% increase in eight years as “excessive.”
But when you compare it to the first eight weeks of the current administration, when Obama and his team increased our deficit by 435%, the Reagan years don’t look so “excessive” any longer!
Now I’m not comparing parties here. I’m just making the point that deficit spending started more than 25 years ago, and continues today only at a much faster pace.
In my opinion, the biggest deficit in this country is a leadership deficit. We have people in Washington D.C. that continue to make bad choices and spend, instead of dealing with a solution to reduce the government and the deficit.
Unfortunately all Americans on the street are paying for this leadership deficit where it really hurts…in our currency.
The U.S. dollar has dropped 37% in value since it peaked in 2001. And the situation does not look to improve anytime soon.
Why the Dirt-Cheap Buck Helps the U.S. and Hurts You
Here’s the real rub folks…
No matter how Treasury Secretary Geithner might preach about “maintaining a strong dollar,” as he said again at the U.S. embassy recently...the truth is a weaker dollar benefits the U.S. government.
Of course, the weak dollar also hangs Americans out to dry. We get stuck with the bill as every dollar we have buys us less.
But the weaker dollar allows U.S. exports to be more competitive in the world. The weaker dollar also allows multi-national business to enjoy huge profits overseas.
Oh! And here’s the 800-lb Gorilla in the room that I almost forgot about… The weak dollar gives the U.S. government the ability to pay back our deficits with “cheaper dollars.”
It means that Uncle Sam doesn’t have an incentive to pay off our debts. That’s the cheese that binds for the dollar folks!
One day this will all come crashing down like a house of cards, folks… and when that happens, you’ll want to have some cash outside the dollar. Trust me.
Friday, November 27, 2009
HAVE A GREAT W/E AND CU MONDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN
CHEERS
PETER
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
Friday, November 20, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
CURRENT POSITIONS:
LONG GBP/YEN AT 14865 2 LOTS
LONG EUR/USD AT 14942 3 LOTS
GUESS WE HAVE TO BE VERY PATIENT HERE, AS WITH THIS GOLD PRICE EUR/USD SEEMS A BIT "UNDERVALUED" ALTHOUGH I HAVE THE FEELING THAT SOME MAJOR POWERS ARE TRYING TO KEEP IT BELOW 15000. LET'S GIVE IT SOME MORE TIME AND SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. FOR EUR/USD PLACE STOP NOW AT BREAK EVEN!
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Monday, November 9, 2009
I DON'T THINK WE WILL REACH THAT LEVEL. IT'S THE GOOD OLD "BUY THE RUMORS SELL THE FACTS". TECHNICALLY IT SEEMS EUR/USD AND CABLE TOO ARE GETTING A BIT TIRED. IT'S TIME FOR A CORRECTION. I MIGHT BE WRONG BUT THAT'S MY FEELING. AT LEAST AS WE ARE POSITIONED NOW IT CAN'T COST ANY MONEY.....GOOD NIGHT FROM SPAIN
Sunday, November 8, 2009
THE BLOOMBERG ARTICLE
GOOD LUCK
PETER
USD$ STILL UNDER VALUED?
By John Fraher and Rainer Buergin
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” across the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.
“There are indications that the U.S. dollar is now serving as the funding currency for carry trades,” the IMF said in a report published today. “These trades may be contributing to upward pressure on the euro and some emerging economy currencies.” While the dollar “has moved closer to medium-run equilibrium,” it is still “on the strong side.”
With investors able to borrow at near-zero interest rates in the U.S., some economists are concerned that markets may become distorted as traders plough those funds into riskier assets. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who forecast the financial crisis in 2006, said Nov. 4 that investors are milking the “mother of all carry trades.”
The MSCI All-Countries World Index has gained about two- thirds since March and sugar has soared 90 percent this year. The dollar has dropped 13 percent against a basket of currencies from its major trading partners in the past seven months.
The euro’s exchange rate “is on the strong side of its equilibrium,” the Washington-based IMF said.
Chinese Currency
The fund, which published the report as officials from the Group of 20 nations gathered in St. Andrews, Scotland, also said that the yuan is “significantly undervalued.”
“The Chinese renminbi has depreciated in real effective terms in tandem with the U.S. dollar and remains significantly undervalued from a medium-term perspective,” the IMF said.
Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told Bloomberg News yesterday that “the pressure from the international community to allow yuan appreciation is not that big,” deflecting calls from Europe and Japan to let it rise.
The IMF also said in its report that countries should withdraw economic stimulus too late rather than too early because the global economic recovery is likely to be “sluggish” and inflation rates will stay low.
“The timing of exits should depend on the state of the economy and the financial system, and should err on the side of further supporting demand and financial repair,” the IMF said.
More Support
The G-20 said today in a joint statement it had “agreed to maintain support for the recovery until it is assured.” While economic and financial conditions have improved, “high unemployment is a major concern,” the officials said.
Countries should coordinate the withdrawal of stimulus to avoid “adverse spillovers,” though that does not necessarily imply synchronization, the IMF said in a seven-point catalog of principles for policy exit.
Curbing government deficits should be a “top policy priority” while monetary policy can adjust more flexibly when “normalization” is needed, the IMF said. Central banks needn’t take back their unconventional policy measures before starting to raise interest rates, it said.
To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher at jfraher@bloomberg.net; Rainer Buergin at rbuergin1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 7, 2009 13:52 ESTFriday, November 6, 2009
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
SO WE GOT STOPPED OUT OF OUR CABLE POSITION LAST WEEK AND HAD TO TAKE A SMALL LOSS. MARKET IS VERY QUIET AND SLOW LATELY AS , I THINK, MANY PEOPLE BURNED THEIR FINGERS AFTER THE GOLD RALLY. PERHAPS WE ARE GETTING RID OF THE TRADING THEME WHERE PEOPLE BUY USD AS A SAFE HAVEN CURRENCY.
BACK TO THE OLD DAYS AND PUNISHING THE CURRENCY OF THE WORST PERFORMING ECONOMY THE WAY IT SHOULD BE? I WOULD LOVE TOO AS IT WOULD MAKE LIFE MUCH EASIER END LOGICAL. STILL THE MARKET IN GENERAL IS NOT CONVINCED YET. FOR SURE IN THE COURSE OF THIS YEAR AND EARLY NEXT YEAR
INFLATION WILL BEAT AROUND HARD IN THE US. THE NATIONAL DEBT WILL RUN UP TO A STAGGERING $20 TRILLION. WE STILL HAVE CAD IN POSITION, WHICH IS TRADING IN A SMALL RANGE. WE LEAVE THAT ONE OPEN AND STAY SOMEWHAT SIDELINED AND WATCH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT'S WISER TO STAY OUT FOR THE MOMENT. ALSO WATCH THE S&P CLOSELY AS IT KEEPS GOING HIGHER EVERY DAY. I WOULD PULL OUT OF STOCKS NOW. NEXT TIME MORE.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
I SUPPOSE YOU AREV ALL OUT OF THE YEN TRADE. AS A LOW I HAVE SEEN 149.15.
THE LAST TIME I DID BUY SOME USD CAD AT 11040 AND HEREBY I WOULD LIKE TO ADD ONE MORE LOT AT 10817. aLSO TODAY WE HAVE THE BOE OUT WITH AN INTEREST RATE DECISION. ALTHOUGH GENERAL EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE BOE WILL NOT MOVE I DO NOT EXCLUDE, SEEN THE LAGGING POSITION OF THE UK IN ECONOMIC RECOVERY THAT THEY MIGHT DO SOME EXTRA QUANTATIVE EASING OR LOWER THEIR BENCH MARK RATE FROM 0.5% TO 0.25% AN OTHER PROBLEM IN THE UK IS THAT THE BANKS DO NOT LEND THE EXTRA VASH RECEIVED FROM THE GOVERNMENT TO THE CONSUMER/CORPORATIONS BUT RATHER PLACES THE MONEY ON DEPOSIY WITH BOE WHICH PAY THEM 0,50%, NICE! HENCE TAKE A SHORT CABLE HERE AT 16517 WITH STOP LOSS 16550
REGARDS
PETER
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
FINALLY TODAY WE TOUCHED THE ALMOST MAGICAL PINT OF 150.00 I HAVE SEEN 14985/92 SO THE ONES THAT WANTED TO COVER HAD ALL OPPORTUNITY TO DO SO.
CONGRATULATIONS WITH YOUR NICE PROFIT! PERSONALLY I THINK WE WILL GO LOWER. AT THIS MOMENT WE QUOTE 150 10/15 SO A DAILY CLOSE ON ALMOST THE LOWEST POINT OF THE DAY. AND BESIDES THE S&P 500 TO WHICH GBEP/YEN IS PRETTY CORRELATRD CLOSED BELOW 1000 AT 998! I EXPECT STOCK MARKETS IN ASIA AND EUROPE TO FOLLOW THIS UP WHAT WILL PUT UP THE PRESSURE ON GBP/YEN. I THINK THAT WE COULD SEE 14800 REAL SOON.
BY THE WAY I JUST BOUGHT MY FIRST LOT OF USD/CAD AT 1,1040
REGARDS
PETER
Monday, August 31, 2009
150 03/10 AS FAR AS i HAVE SEEN. CURRENTLY WE ARE IN A LITTLE CORRECTION. I DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM THIS. TOMORROW SPT.1ST LONDON WILL BE BACK FROM HOLIDAYS AND I AM VERY CURIOUS WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO. I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL SELL THE OVERVALUED GBP/USD DOWN TO 1.6000 AND LOWER. THE RESULT OF THAT ON GBP/YEN IS OBVIOUS. I SUGGEST TO TAKE THE TAKE PROFIT OUT OF GBP/YEN AT 15000 AND WE 'LL FOLLOW THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. OF COURSE IT'S UP TO YOU. NOW TE POSITION IS IN DEEP PROFIT. YOU COULD SET A STOP LOSS ABOVE 15200 RESISTANCE OR YOU LEAVE IT OPEN FOR A FURTHER DOWNMOVE INTO THE 14800 AREA AND LOWER PERHAPS. THE LATTER BEING MY PERSONAL RECOMMENDATION BUT I CAN IMAGINE ALSO THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO TAKE PROFIT, PERHAPS PARTIALLY.
CURRENTLY I AM LOOKING TO USD/CAD. I THINK USD/CAD HAS A LONG WAY UP TO GO. I DON'T WANT TO GO INTO DETAILS AS YET BUT A USD/CAD AT 1,50 , BY YEAR END I DO NOT SEE AS IMPOSSIBLE. IN ANOTHER POST I LL GO DEEPER INTO THIS.
REGARDS
PETER
Friday, August 28, 2009
THANK YOU FOR THE FRIENDLY COMMENTS. IN SPITE OF EVERYTHING GOING ON AT THE MOMENT I KEPT FOLLOWING THE MARKETS. SO FAR SO GOOD, WE HIT THE 15100 LEVEL AND ARE CURRENTLY IN A SMALL RETRACEMENT. I EXPECT 15300 AS VERY TOPPISH. AFTER WE (PERHAPS) HIT THE 15300 I EXPECT GBP/YEN TO DROP FURTHER TO 1ST TARGET 150.00 WITH EXTENSION TO PERHAPS 14800 LEVEL.
IF YOU TOOK THIS POSITION AND FOLLOWED IT ALL THE WAY I SUGGEST YOU COVER 4 OUT OF OUR 7 LOTS AT 150.00 AND THE 3 REMAINDERS AT 14800. OF COURSE YOU COULD ALSO COVER THE ENTIRE POSITION AT 15000. IF HIT YOU WILL HAVE A SWEET 880 POINTS PROFIT PER LOT OR 6160 POINTS. ON WHATEVER EQUITY YOU MAY HAVE THIS IS A RETURN OF 61,6% I HOPE WE WILL GET THERE VERY SOON.
BEST REGARDS
PETER RIS
Saturday, August 22, 2009
DUE TO SERIOUS FAMILY CIRCUMSTANCES I STILL CAN NOT BE HERE EVRY DAY TO POST. I CAN ASSURE YOU THIS WILL CHANGE AFTER NEXT WEEK. IT HAS ALL TO DO WITH ILLNESS OF MY DAD. NEXT WEEK IS HIS LAST WEEK OF THERAPY AND HOPEFULLY ALL WILL BE FINE. IN THE MEANTIME I KEEP FOLLOWING THE MARKETS. CURRENTLY WE ARE ON KEY POINT 155.60. I EXPECT ONE FINAL MOVE UP TO 158.00 AND PERHAPS 159.00. I WOULD LEAVE THOSE 2 LEVELS AS A SELL ORDER.
IF THERE IS AN OVERSHOOT TO 160.00 WHICH I DOUBT, SELL THAT ONE AS WELL.
IN THE LATTER SCENARIO WE WILL HAVE A 1:10 LEVERAGE ON AVERAGE OF 159.00
AFTER THIS UPSIDE TEST I EXPECT A BIG FALL TO 15000/14500 AND PERHAPS DEEPER. THE STOCKMARKETS HAVE BEEN VERY PUMPED UP. EVERY DAY YOU SEE AN HIGHER S&P BUT ON LOWER VOLUME. THE STOCK MARKET IS RUNNING OUT OF STEAM AND READY TO COLLAPSE, HARD! THE CROWD IS BEING MANIPULATED AS MUCH AS POSSIIBLE BY US GOVERNMENT AND ITS ALLIES IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY AND FED AND ALSO HELPED BY THE MULTI STREAM MEDIA. SOON IT WILL BE OVER. I TRUST TO MAKE A GIGA MOVE ON THIS GBP/YEN POSITION. USUALLY, PATIENCE PAYS...!
REGARDS
PETER
Monday, August 17, 2009
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
I HAVE BEEN PRETTY ABSENT LATELY ALTHOUGH I KEPT FOLLOWING THE MARKET.
FOR YOUR INFO WE ARE SHORT 7 LOTS ON AVERAGE AT 15880. SO WE ARE BACK IN THE MONEY SO TO SAY. iT MIGHT MAKE ANOTHER MOVE UP, ON WHICH WE WILL SELL MORE UPTO 10 LOTS MAX AS 1:10 IS THE MAX. LEVERAGE IN THIS M/T PLAY.
I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 15000 SOON, THAN WE WILL COVER THIS POSITION.
THANK YOU
PETER
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