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Saturday, November 28, 2009

source: Chuck Buttler of Everbank

Why America Is Flat Broke

…And How to Shield Yourself from Miserable U.S. Economy, Soaring Deficits, and the Falling Dollar (In Three Days or Less!)

Good day... And Welcome to a Special Weekend Edition of the Pfennig!

Lately, several of you have asked me for the full story on the debt situation here in the United States.

It seems you all want to know how that debt situation affects YOU, the average tax-paying American waltzing down Main Street.

Of course, long-term readers know that’s something I cover fairly often here in the Pfennig. But I never have time to give you the FULL story...with all the gory details about the bankrupt Uncle Sam, TRILLION dollar debts, and the sinking dollar.

More importantly, I never have enough time to explain how you can get out of the U.S. dollar fast...so you can escape the rising deficit situation here in the U.S.

Now, I hate to interrupt your lovely weekend, but a special Saturday issue seemed like the perfect opportunity to cover all that.

So if you’re game, grab some coffee, and we’ll jump right in!

Let’s start with some facts first.

As of today, the U.S. National Debt is nearly $12 Trillion dollars. That’s a monster in itself, but it’s nothing compared to what the U.S. really owes…

Do You Have $344,000 to Pay Uncle Sam? Well You Should.

You see most people have no idea what the U.S. government owes on “unfunded obligations.” That’s government-ese for entitlement programs like Medicare, Social Security etc.

Right now, the total unfunded obligations sits at $106 Trillion dollars! That’s more than 780% MORE than the “national debt!”

Now, let’s do a little math…

If you charged Americans for the national debt, each citizen would have to shell out $38,940. If you just charged taxpayers, that tab would climb to $104,000 per person.

Our nation’s Total Assets now stand at $74 Trillion dollars, or $240,000 per citizen.

Now add in the “unfunded obligations” at $106 Trillion, and every citizen would have to shell out $344,000 to keep us afloat.

In other words…as a country, we are flat-broke!

By the way, if you don't believe me, you can go to the National Debt Clock website and see for yourself. But I warn you don’t go there if you have a weak stomach.

How in the World Did Our Debts Reach This High?


This deficit spending all began in the 80’s. However, at that time, the government was much smaller than it is today.

Let’s talk about some fallacies that exist when people talk about deficit spending that began in the 80’s in the Reagan administration…

Ronald Reagan increased the deficit by 35% in eight years, or $37 Billion per year. At the time it seemed like a lot. After all, the U.S. was a surplus nation at the time. In fact, economists viewed this 35% increase in eight years as “excessive.”

But when you compare it to the first eight weeks of the current administration, when Obama and his team increased our deficit by 435%, the Reagan years don’t look so “excessive” any longer!

Now I’m not comparing parties here. I’m just making the point that deficit spending started more than 25 years ago, and continues today only at a much faster pace.

In my opinion, the biggest deficit in this country is a leadership deficit. We have people in Washington D.C. that continue to make bad choices and spend, instead of dealing with a solution to reduce the government and the deficit.

Unfortunately all Americans on the street are paying for this leadership deficit where it really hurts…in our currency.

The U.S. dollar has dropped 37% in value since it peaked in 2001. And the situation does not look to improve anytime soon.

Why the Dirt-Cheap Buck Helps the U.S. and Hurts You

Here’s the real rub folks…

No matter how Treasury Secretary Geithner might preach about “maintaining a strong dollar,” as he said again at the U.S. embassy recently...the truth is a weaker dollar benefits the U.S. government.

Of course, the weak dollar also hangs Americans out to dry. We get stuck with the bill as every dollar we have buys us less.

But the weaker dollar allows U.S. exports to be more competitive in the world. The weaker dollar also allows multi-national business to enjoy huge profits overseas.

Oh! And here’s the 800-lb Gorilla in the room that I almost forgot about… The weak dollar gives the U.S. government the ability to pay back our deficits with “cheaper dollars.”

It means that Uncle Sam doesn’t have an incentive to pay off our debts. That’s the cheese that binds for the dollar folks!

One day this will all come crashing down like a house of cards, folks… and when that happens, you’ll want to have some cash outside the dollar. Trust me.

Friday, November 27, 2009

VERY SORRY READERS. I WAS UNEXPECTEDLY CALLED AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND JUST GOT BACK AT THE SCREENS. WE WERE WELL IN PROFITS ACROSS THE BOARD AND I HOPE YOU WERE SO WISE TAKING THEM, UNLIKE ME! IF YOU DIDN'T HOWEVER, I EXPECT ANOTHER WAVE DOWN NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY OVERSOLD FOR THE USD AND LOWER LOWS WILL BE REACHED NEXT WEEK I EXPECT.
HAVE A GREAT W/E AND CU MONDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN

CHEERS
PETER

Thursday, November 26, 2009

OPEN POSITIONS NOW : LONG USD/SFR 3 LOTS AT 1.0078
SHORT EUR/USD 4 LOTS AT 1,4978
SHORT XAU/USD 500 OZ AT 1186,50 STOP 1210
WE ARE STILL SHORT GBP/USD 3 LOTS AT 16637
LETS TAKE A NICE PROFIT HERE AND COVER AT 16550 FOR A 87 POINTS PROFIT
OK GUYS GOOD MORNING. AM HAPPY I TOOK THAT LAST ROUND OF TRADES. LET'S AT LEAST TAKE PROFIT ON THOSE ONES

BUY CABLE AT 16553 FOR 152 pips profit
BUY EUR/USD AT 15080 47 pips profits
SELL USD/SFR 1.0010 38 pips profit

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

THIS IS ENTIRELY REDICULOUS. I DON'T DO THIS VERY OFTEN BUT NOW I
BUY USD/SFR AT 9972
SELL EUR/USD AT 15127
SELL GBP/USD AT 16705

THIS MUST CORRECT AS VOLUME IS VERY LOW!
AS YOU ALL CAN SEE IT'S THE VERY OVERBOUGHT GOLD PRICE THAT KEEPS THE CURRENCIES UP AGAINST USD. FOR THIS TIME, DUE TO THE EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT LEVEL I RECOMMEND TO SELL 500 OUNCE OF GOLD AT 1186.50 STOP AT 1210.00
MAX RISK $ 11.750
OK SELL ONE MORE LOT EUR/USD AT 1,5040
OUR AVERAGE NOW 1,4978 FOR 4 LOTS EUR/USD
POSITIONS NOW:

LONG USD/SFR 3 LOTS AT 1.0078
SHORT EUR/USD 3 LOTS AT 1,4957
SHORT GBP/USD 3 LOTS AT 1,6637
SELL ONE MORE CABLE AT 16700
WE BOUGHT ONE LOT OF USD/SFR AT 10050
SELL ANOTHER LOT CABLE AT 16643
SELL EUR/USD ONE LOT AT 15004

IF THERE BUY USD/SFR AT 10050

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

SELL CABLE AT 16567
CURRENT POSITIONS: USD/SFR LONG 2 LOTS AT 10093
EUR/USD SHORT 2 LOTS AT 14933
WOW LOOK AT THE RSI IN GOLD. ALMOST JUMPING OUT OF MY SCREEN. TIME FOR A GOOD CORRECTION SO USD/SFR SHOULD GO UP SOON. LETS BUY ANOTHER LOT AT
10111

Monday, November 23, 2009

ONE ORDER JUST FILLED IN USD/SFR (15 MIN AGO) WE ARE LONG AT 10075
NEXT BUY ORDER AT 10050
BUY USD/SFR AT 1.0075 AND 1,0050 ONCE WE GER THERE....
SELL ANOTHER LOT EUR/USD AT 14975
SO SHORT IN TOTAL 2 LOTS AT 14933

SQUARE USD/CAD AT 10610 FOR 92 POINTS PROFIT

Friday, November 20, 2009

HI GUYS, SEEN THAT CLASSICAL BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN HOURLY RSI IN USD/CAD?
SEEMS TIME TO SELL IT: USD/CAD OUT AT 10702

WE STAY SHORT EUR/USD

Thursday, November 19, 2009

ORDER DONE SOLD EUR/USD AT 14890 STOP 14930
AHEAD MR. TRICHET SPEECH AT 1600 GMT LET US SELL EUR/USD AT 14890 LIMIT
IF DONE STOP AT 14930
OK GUYS THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO MUSIC IN THIS MARKET. WHAT A DRAG!
SO LETS SQUARE UP.
SELL USD/SFR AT 10170 FOR 95 POINTS PROFIT
BUY EUR/USD AT 14875 FOR 75 POINTS PROFIT

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

SELL EUR/USD AT 14950
ONE ORDER EXECUTED BOUGHT USD/SFR AT 10075
NEXT ORDER AT 10050
GOOD AFTERNOON. SEEMS MARKET IS ALREADY IN THE HOLIDAY MOOD!
HOWEVER STILL SEE A POSSIBLE TRADE IN USD/SFR. BUY 1 LOT AT 1.0075
AND ANOTHER LOT AT 1.0050

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

SELL USD/SFR 2 LOTS AT 10193 AND BOOK 186 POINTS PROFIT

ALL SQUARE NOW.
POSITION OPEN NOW LONG USD/SFR 2 LOTS AT 10110
OK OUT OF GBP/YEN AT 14965, WHERE WE ENTERED ON AVERAGE 148625
SO PROFIT 205 POINTS BASED ON ONE LOT AS USUAL. LOUSY MARKET!
LET'S PLACE A STOP LOSS ON OUR 2 LOTS GBP/YEN AT 14965 AND LOCK IN 103 POINTS PROFIT. bEEN A LONG TIME AGO IT WAS SO QUIET IN GBP/YEN, THE VOLATILITY JUST SEEM TO HAVE DISAPPEARED....
LET'S SQUARE OUT THIS EUR/USD. I HAD ENOUGH WATCHING THIS PAINT DRY:
149,31 SO A TINY LOSS HERE. INSTEAD LET'S BUY ANOTHER LOT USD/SFR AT 10115
GOOS MORNING. SEEMS THAT SNB'S ROTH IS GOING TO SPEAK IN BETWEEN 11.00/11.30 CET. I CAN NOT IMAGINE HE IS VERY HAPPY WITH THE USD/SFR RATE GOING TO PARITY, HENCE I BUY USD/SFR 1 LOT AT 10105

Monday, November 16, 2009

HMM WE WERE TRAPPED IN THAT EUR/USD...LET'S GO BACK IN AND BUY ONE LOT AT 14952....STOP AT 14887
OK, EUR/USD STOPPED OUT. IT'S OBVIOUS THAT SOME HIDDEN INTERVENTION IS TAKING PLACE IN EUR/USD. CAN'T FIGHT THAT. FORTUNATELY WE HAD THE STOP IN PLACE. GBP/YEN SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN THE 15000 LEVEL SUGGEST A TAKE PROFIT AT 15065 FOR ONE LOT
HI GUYS STILL HERE. IT IS A SLOW MARKET BUT STILL SLIGHTLY GOING OUR WAY.
CURRENT POSITIONS:

LONG GBP/YEN AT 14865 2 LOTS

LONG EUR/USD AT 14942 3 LOTS

GUESS WE HAVE TO BE VERY PATIENT HERE, AS WITH THIS GOLD PRICE EUR/USD SEEMS A BIT "UNDERVALUED" ALTHOUGH I HAVE THE FEELING THAT SOME MAJOR POWERS ARE TRYING TO KEEP IT BELOW 15000. LET'S GIVE IT SOME MORE TIME AND SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. FOR EUR/USD PLACE STOP NOW AT BREAK EVEN!

Thursday, November 12, 2009

BUY ANOTHER LOT EUR/USD AT 14858
BUY ANOTHER LOT IN GBP/YEN AT 148,29

STOP LOSS AT 148,00 FOR BOTH LOTS.
STILL IN GBP/YEN LONG!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

BUY GBP/YEN AT 148,96 STOP AT 148,30
OK LET'S TAKE A SMALL LOSS ON EUR/USD AT 14984 AND GO LONG 2 LOTS AT THE SAME TIME. SO WE TAKE 34 POINTS LOSS ON 2 LOTS (68 POINTS IN TOTAL)
OK READERS, TIME TO BUY THAT CABLE BACK BEFORE IT STARTS TO RETRACE.
COVER HERE AT 16542 FOR A 208 POINTS PROFIT. STAY SHORT IN EUR/USD
CABLE SELL ORDER AT 16750 EXECUTED. STOP AT 16805

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

NOT MUCH GOING ON IN EUR TODAY. AM LOOKING AT ANOTHER SET UP IN CABLE.
LIMIT ORDER: SELL CABLE AT 16750 STOP LOSS 16800

Monday, November 9, 2009

OOPS MISTAKE ON MY END. WE DIDN'T TOUCH 15050 OVERNIGHT. SO WE ARE STILL SHORT ONE LOT AT 14905. KEEP THE SELL ORDER IN THOUGH.....
SELL HERE ANOTHERLOT AT 14995 SO WE WILL BE SHORT 2 LOTS AT 14950 ON AVERAGE
ORDER WAS EXECUTED SO WE SOLD ANOTHER LOT EUR/USD AT 15050.
SO NOW WE ARE SHORT 2 LOTS AT 15027. WE KEEP OUR STOP AT 15105
SKIP THE SL ORDER IN EUR/USD AND SELL ANOTHER LOT AT 15050 IF WE GET THERE.
EUROPE CAN NOT AFFORD A EURO/USD ABOVE 15000 STOP AT 15125
OK READERS. SO FAR THE OPENING REACTION ON THE IMF NEWS, THAT USD IS UNDERVALUED ONLY LEAD US TO A SMALL OPENING GAP OF 35 POINTS UP. WE KEEP OUR STOP IN PLACE AT 14905 OR BETTER IF YOU CAN AFFORD THE RISK 14930.
I DON'T THINK WE WILL REACH THAT LEVEL. IT'S THE GOOD OLD "BUY THE RUMORS SELL THE FACTS". TECHNICALLY IT SEEMS EUR/USD AND CABLE TOO ARE GETTING A BIT TIRED. IT'S TIME FOR A CORRECTION. I MIGHT BE WRONG BUT THAT'S MY FEELING. AT LEAST AS WE ARE POSITIONED NOW IT CAN'T COST ANY MONEY.....GOOD NIGHT FROM SPAIN

Sunday, November 8, 2009

THE BLOOMBERG ARTICLE

WELL AT FIRST SIGHT IT SEEMS LIKE THE USD WILL DIVE AT THE TOKYO OPEN, ALTHOUGH I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT EUROPEAN EXPORTING NATIONS WILL AGREE ON THIS AND THUS INTERVENE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. THERE COULD BE A GOOD SPIKE UP IN EUR/USD AND CABLE AT THE TOKYO OPEN ALTHOUGH I WOULD USE THOSE TO SELL INTO. COMMENTS FROM EUROPEAN OFFICIALS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING SO BEWARE!!

GOOD LUCK
PETER

USD$ STILL UNDER VALUED?

JUST FOUND THIS ARTICLE ON BLOOMBERG. DOESNT BODE WELL FOR USD BULLS:

By John Fraher and Rainer Buergin

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” across the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.

“There are indications that the U.S. dollar is now serving as the funding currency for carry trades,” the IMF said in a report published today. “These trades may be contributing to upward pressure on the euro and some emerging economy currencies.” While the dollar “has moved closer to medium-run equilibrium,” it is still “on the strong side.”

With investors able to borrow at near-zero interest rates in the U.S., some economists are concerned that markets may become distorted as traders plough those funds into riskier assets. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who forecast the financial crisis in 2006, said Nov. 4 that investors are milking the “mother of all carry trades.”

The MSCI All-Countries World Index has gained about two- thirds since March and sugar has soared 90 percent this year. The dollar has dropped 13 percent against a basket of currencies from its major trading partners in the past seven months.

The euro’s exchange rate “is on the strong side of its equilibrium,” the Washington-based IMF said.

Chinese Currency

The fund, which published the report as officials from the Group of 20 nations gathered in St. Andrews, Scotland, also said that the yuan is “significantly undervalued.”

“The Chinese renminbi has depreciated in real effective terms in tandem with the U.S. dollar and remains significantly undervalued from a medium-term perspective,” the IMF said.

Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told Bloomberg News yesterday that “the pressure from the international community to allow yuan appreciation is not that big,” deflecting calls from Europe and Japan to let it rise.

The IMF also said in its report that countries should withdraw economic stimulus too late rather than too early because the global economic recovery is likely to be “sluggish” and inflation rates will stay low.

“The timing of exits should depend on the state of the economy and the financial system, and should err on the side of further supporting demand and financial repair,” the IMF said.

More Support

The G-20 said today in a joint statement it had “agreed to maintain support for the recovery until it is assured.” While economic and financial conditions have improved, “high unemployment is a major concern,” the officials said.

Countries should coordinate the withdrawal of stimulus to avoid “adverse spillovers,” though that does not necessarily imply synchronization, the IMF said in a seven-point catalog of principles for policy exit.

Curbing government deficits should be a “top policy priority” while monetary policy can adjust more flexibly when “normalization” is needed, the IMF said. Central banks needn’t take back their unconventional policy measures before starting to raise interest rates, it said.

To contact the reporters on this story: John Fraher at jfraher@bloomberg.net; Rainer Buergin at rbuergin1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 7, 2009 13:52 EST

Friday, November 6, 2009

RE: SELL OF EUR/USD AT 149,05 PLS BRING STOP TO BREAK EVEN NOW. LET'S KEEP THIS POSITIONS OVER THE W/E
FINALLY A NEW UPDATE. SELL EUR/USD AT 149,05 , STOP LOSS AT 149,50
 

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