Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
Friday, June 25, 2010
Thursday, June 24, 2010
OK GUYS 03.50 AM HERE GOTTA REST A BIT. kEEP A STOP JUST ABOBE THE 150I CABLE (ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD HOLD IMHO) AND TO EURO/YEN...DOWNTREND VERY MUCH IN TACT AND WILL COME OFF AGAIN. KEEP STOPS JUST ABOVE 111.10. MARKET HAS BEEN TERIBLE AGAIN ALTOUGH OVERALL WE DIDNT DO TOO BAD. lIQUIDITY,I REPEAT IS DRAMATIC AT CERTAIN HOURS OF THE DAY.I AM FED UP WITH THOSE SOCCER GAMES, APART FROM THE FACT THAT IT'S THE WORSE TOURNAMENT I HAVE EVER SEEN SOFAR. ANYWAYS WE KEEP FIGHTING! GOOD NITE AND REGARDS
PETER
PETER
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials retained a pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low for an “extended period” and signaled that European indebtedness may harm American growth.
“The economic recovery is proceeding” and “the labor market is improving gradually,” the Fed’s Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. Still, “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.”
KIND OF HYSTERICAL REACTION THIS. I SOLD ONE MORE EUR/YEN AT 11086
“The economic recovery is proceeding” and “the labor market is improving gradually,” the Fed’s Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. Still, “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.”
KIND OF HYSTERICAL REACTION THIS. I SOLD ONE MORE EUR/YEN AT 11086
OK GUYS IN CABLE WE MAKE A DOUBLE TOP RES. AT 14935 FOR EUR/USD COUNTS GOOD SUPPORT AROUND 12260 IF ONE OF THEM DOES BREAK OUT STOP YOURSELVES OUT! i DON'T THINK IT SHOULD HAPPEN AS IT WOULD SET DOWNWARD PRESSURE AT EUR/GBP WHICH JUST MADE A TRIPPLE BOTTOM AND IS VERY OVERSOLD. CABLE IS VERY OVERBOUGHT BTW. TAKE CARE!
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Why are we surprised by a ‘good’ Spanish auction?
By Jamie Coleman || June 17, 2010 at 13:35 GMT
The ECB is buying euro government debt with both hands and vows to do more…
The next headline is ‘market relief’ that the Spanish auction went okay.
The logic is a bit circular to me. How can the auction go badly if the central bank is in the market keeping a bid under it? Of all the reasons for the euro rally, THAT one is the weakest, to me......
I CAN'T AGREE MORE!
By Jamie Coleman || June 17, 2010 at 13:35 GMT
The ECB is buying euro government debt with both hands and vows to do more…
The next headline is ‘market relief’ that the Spanish auction went okay.
The logic is a bit circular to me. How can the auction go badly if the central bank is in the market keeping a bid under it? Of all the reasons for the euro rally, THAT one is the weakest, to me......
I CAN'T AGREE MORE!
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
HI GUYS,ALTHO STOPS WERE JUST HIT,I PERSONALLY DID NOT PLACE THEM,SO I AM STILL IN.
I OFTEN RECEIVE THE QUESTION WHY NOT PLACING STOPS. STOP LOSSES HAVE THE PROPERTY OF USUALLY BEING DONE,AFTER WHICH THE PRICE GOES BACK YOUR WAY.LAST NIGHT WAS A GREAT EXAMPLE ONCE AGAIN.I KNOW SOMETIMES YOU GO FLAT ON YOUR FACE BUT IF YOU OFF SET THAT AGAINST THE NUMEROUS TIMES YOU WERE STOPPED OUT FOR NOTHING IT'S CLEAR THAT THE LATTER IS THE MOST ECONOMICAL OPTION BY FAR,QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM.CONDITION IS OF COURSE THAT YOU ARE NOT OVERLEVERAGED LIKE ABOVE 1:10
I OFTEN RECEIVE THE QUESTION WHY NOT PLACING STOPS. STOP LOSSES HAVE THE PROPERTY OF USUALLY BEING DONE,AFTER WHICH THE PRICE GOES BACK YOUR WAY.LAST NIGHT WAS A GREAT EXAMPLE ONCE AGAIN.I KNOW SOMETIMES YOU GO FLAT ON YOUR FACE BUT IF YOU OFF SET THAT AGAINST THE NUMEROUS TIMES YOU WERE STOPPED OUT FOR NOTHING IT'S CLEAR THAT THE LATTER IS THE MOST ECONOMICAL OPTION BY FAR,QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM.CONDITION IS OF COURSE THAT YOU ARE NOT OVERLEVERAGED LIKE ABOVE 1:10
STOPS AT 12350 AND 14840
IF DONE I LL TAKE A BREAK FROM TRADING.NO CLUE WHATS GOING ON HERE,IT'S CLEAR CENTRAL BANKS PLAYING GAMES IN THE BACKRGOUND AND NO OPEN MARKET INTERVENTION.IT'S ANYYONE'S GUESS WHERE WE WILL BE HEADING FOR.I ASSUMKE 124/125 OR WHO KNOWS WHERE, THE MOVE GOES AGAINST ALL FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS, I CAN'T BEAT THIS. SORRY FOR THAT....AND I CERTAINLY WILL NOT TRADE AGAINST FUNDAMENTALS AND MANIPULATIONS. SORRY. THANKS.
IF DONE I LL TAKE A BREAK FROM TRADING.NO CLUE WHATS GOING ON HERE,IT'S CLEAR CENTRAL BANKS PLAYING GAMES IN THE BACKRGOUND AND NO OPEN MARKET INTERVENTION.IT'S ANYYONE'S GUESS WHERE WE WILL BE HEADING FOR.I ASSUMKE 124/125 OR WHO KNOWS WHERE, THE MOVE GOES AGAINST ALL FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS, I CAN'T BEAT THIS. SORRY FOR THAT....AND I CERTAINLY WILL NOT TRADE AGAINST FUNDAMENTALS AND MANIPULATIONS. SORRY. THANKS.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Monday, June 14, 2010
OK GUYS I SQUARED THE ENTIRE SHORT POSITION AT 12195 TAKING A RECORD 1000 POINTS LOSS.
I REEALLY UNDERESTIMATED THIS EUR/USD CORRECTION BUT AS YOU CAN ALL SEE I8TS ONE STEP BACK AND 3 FORWARD. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT EUR/USD WILL GO TO 118/115 LATER BUT WHAT I DO NOT KNOW IS FROM WHERE. KEY RESISTANCXE LEVEL HAVE BEEN BROKEN WITH EASY ALL ALST WEEK AND TODAY. SNB INTERVENTION LOOMS ALL THE TIME. MARKETS ARE VERY THIN AND ILLIQUID (-75%)MR BROKER TOLD ME THANKS TO THE SOCCER GAMES. WE MISS TWO WAY TRADING. SO WE COULD GO TO 12500 FIRST. UNDER THE CISCUMTANCES EVERYTHING SEMS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOMENT. REALLY, MY WORST TRADE SINCE I STARTED SINCE APRIL 2009. SORRY!
I REEALLY UNDERESTIMATED THIS EUR/USD CORRECTION BUT AS YOU CAN ALL SEE I8TS ONE STEP BACK AND 3 FORWARD. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT EUR/USD WILL GO TO 118/115 LATER BUT WHAT I DO NOT KNOW IS FROM WHERE. KEY RESISTANCXE LEVEL HAVE BEEN BROKEN WITH EASY ALL ALST WEEK AND TODAY. SNB INTERVENTION LOOMS ALL THE TIME. MARKETS ARE VERY THIN AND ILLIQUID (-75%)MR BROKER TOLD ME THANKS TO THE SOCCER GAMES. WE MISS TWO WAY TRADING. SO WE COULD GO TO 12500 FIRST. UNDER THE CISCUMTANCES EVERYTHING SEMS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOMENT. REALLY, MY WORST TRADE SINCE I STARTED SINCE APRIL 2009. SORRY!
Friday, June 11, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Monday, June 7, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
OK GUYS HAVE REVALUED THE LONG EUR/UDS POSITION AT 1.2000 LET'S KEEP A STOP IN AT 1.1950 ALTHOUGH I HAVEN'T TURNED BULLISH AT ALL I DO THINK WE ARE IN HEAVY OVERSOLD TERRITORY AND I EXPECT A REBOUND TO THE 12100 LEVEL AT LEAST FROM WHERE WE WILL START SELLING AGAIN FOR A FINAL DIP TO THE 1.1500 LEVEL. RESULT FOR THE WEEK 213 POINTS ONLY.
BUT SEEN THE SHORT AND NASTY MOVES ON TUESDAY I AM NOT UNHAPPY WITH IT. LOT OF BLOOD IN THE STREETS THIS WEEK. THANK YOU AND HAVE A NICE W/E
BUT SEEN THE SHORT AND NASTY MOVES ON TUESDAY I AM NOT UNHAPPY WITH IT. LOT OF BLOOD IN THE STREETS THIS WEEK. THANK YOU AND HAVE A NICE W/E
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Spain's Dropout Generation
Jaime Levy Moreno
[Ed. Note: This article originally appeared on the indispensible Mises.org website on Tuesday, June 01, 2010.]
In the last two decades in Mediterranean Europe, and especially in Spain, a new social group has emerged, called jovenes (youngsters). Members of this group exhibit several specific characteristics. First, jovenes are usually male, aged 25-35, although some members are in their 40s. Second, they are in a perpetual state between graduation and their first job. Third, they usually live with their parents to save money, allowing them to go out at least three times a week. Fourth, they occasionally work a part-time job - if only due to the pressure imposed by their parents. Last, and most important, they receive unemployment benefit credits and renew their membership on the "unemployment list" from time to time, so that the state subsidies don't run out during their "temporary" hibernation.
It would be very unfair to put all the blame on them for their lack of initiative. They play a vital part in what is called the "Atlas generation." They have the weight of the world on their shoulders, and they are going to be the ones in charge of paying for the economic sins of their parents. It is important to analyze the reasons why this social group has appeared, what the situation is like today, and what the consequences will be of this phenomenon in the future.
For the last ten years, and especially since the recent financial crisis started, Spanish unemployment has risen astronomically, reaching a record of around 20%. This, of course, does not count the thousands of illegal immigrants, who don't appear in the official state statistics.
Aside from the vast number of unemployed, another significant group of people work in part-time jobs with "garbage contracts" or very low salaries. Members of this group are called mileuristas (those who earn only €1,000/month). This group appears above the jovenes in the social pyramid. Mileuristas normally live at home and dream of becoming economically sufficient eventually, or they live in cheap rented apartments funded by state money, which comes directly from taxpayers' pockets.
Finally, we find a smaller group at the top of the pyramid. This group is formed by either a lucky few, or in some cases, hardworking and generally outstanding young people. This group has very decent jobs (normally around €2,000/month starting salary) and are the sons and daughters of wealthy families that normally receive a more-or-less high-quality private education. They end up employed in the family business or in some firm where their parents or family members have contacts.
Outside of this pyramid we will also find a group of people that decide to study for an "oposición" (state exam) in order to work for the government. Depending on the complexity of their education, and their success on the exam, they will end up working for the first time between the ages of 26 and 35 and will be decently, or even very well paid, for the rest of their lives.
It is also very important to give special attention to the number of years that people are called "students" in Spain. The quality of a university graduate has been devalued in recent years to the point where an employer will no longer be impressed at all by an undergraduate degree in a job interview. Consequently, at least a master's degree or some kind of postcollege specialization accompanied by proficiency in at least three languages is demanded. This, of course, means more years spent as a student and, for the most privileged ones, a year or two living and exploring foreign languages abroad.
Not so long ago in Spain, it was an honor to have a college degree and even more prestigious to hold a graduate degree, which only a few people could achieve due to the expense and hard work that it involved. Now it is almost free to study in a Spanish public university. This is viewed as a great accomplishment that gives opportunities to people from lower classes, who will sometimes end up forming part of the group of "hard working and outstanding young people." But, to be honest, this group is quite small. The effort to make it easier to be a student is largely a way for the government to lower the unemployment rate.
In order to explain why it is so hard for recent graduates to obtain a decent job in Spain, it is important to know that labor costs are very high for employers - a consequence of strict laws that protect workers. Four weeks' vacation a year is the mandatory minimum. An artificially high minimum wage places a floor under the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, creating a devastating imbalance. This means there is a huge demand for jobs and little desire on the part of employers to fulfill it.
Additional reasons for the lack of job offers in Spain include the excessive finiquito, the final pay a worker is entitled to under Spanish law when fired: 45 days of salary for each year worked at the company. Furthermore, taxes on employers are very high - at least a 50 percent of each worker's annual salary, which means that if someone is paid €20,000 a year, it costs their employer at least €30,000 a year to hire them. All this makes an employer very reluctant to hire an employee, which creates a high rate of unemployment and a huge number of "garbage contracts." These taxes also promote black-market activity, which either sidesteps the established rules or ignores them altogether.
The taxes on employee wages are very high as well, which brings us back to the mileurista social status. These taxes create a substitution effect: firms have become desperate for new technologies to reduce labor inputs. One recent example in Spain is McDonald's move to start substituting workers with new machines that take the order for the customer, reducing the number of workers. The goal is to leave only two sets of employees - the ones in the kitchen and ones that hand the food to you at the counter.
Spain's misfortunes have been complicated since joining the eurozone. The ability to obtain very low interest rates to borrow money - the same interest rates as in more powerful and savings-oriented economies like Germany - worked as an incentive for companies to borrow money for infrastructure and housing construction. Around 800,000 houses have been built each year in Spain, more than France, Germany, and England combined. This meant a surge in the supply of jobs in construction industries. Unfortunately, this demand for labor was met mostly by immigrants who now find themselves unemployed with few possibilities. Huge loans to finance this housing boom, especially from the Spanish "cajas" (saving banks) now cannot be paid back and have resulted in a huge government bailout.
As a result, the Spanish government has undertaken an increasingly large debt, financed by the continual issuance of new bonds. This borrowing has strained Spain's public finances, lowered its bond rating, and reduced the demand investors have to continue funding this deficit spending.
At the same time, the bust has caused a severe decline in tax receipts, especially in taxes like the IVA (value-added tax). Consequently the state has received less income and in response is now increasing consumption taxes to cover the shortfall (effective next month). These increased taxes will, in the end, translate to less spending and more constrained profits for all producers. They will also make Spain a very unattractive place for companies worldwide to start or continue their business.
All these effects will ultimately mean more unemployment, which takes us back to the young "Atlas generation." Ironically, many members of this generation have complete faith in the government to take care of all these issues for them. They choose to stay at home until they are middle-aged and delay getting married and creating a family until their mid-to-late 30s. They also have an increasingly huge debt issue, which they will eventually have to take care of.
If current trends continue, within a few short years in Spain each employee will have to pay for one pensioner on social security. Only 40 years ago, ten employees took care of one pensioner through their social-security contributions. The Atlas generation, by putting off marriage and children, has worsened this worker-pensioner imbalance. The yearly rate of births per fertile woman in Spain is only 1.2, one of the lowest in the world, and it will likely decline in coming years.
The only way to solve this problem would be to lower taxes, especially employment taxes, dramatically. Doing so would encourage employers to offer more jobs and employees to have larger families. Unfortunately, this option isn't of much interest for the politicians in Spain, who prefer to maintain the socialist status quo regardless of which political party is in power.
Jaime Levy Moreno,
for The Daily Reckoning
Jaime Levy Moreno
[Ed. Note: This article originally appeared on the indispensible Mises.org website on Tuesday, June 01, 2010.]
In the last two decades in Mediterranean Europe, and especially in Spain, a new social group has emerged, called jovenes (youngsters). Members of this group exhibit several specific characteristics. First, jovenes are usually male, aged 25-35, although some members are in their 40s. Second, they are in a perpetual state between graduation and their first job. Third, they usually live with their parents to save money, allowing them to go out at least three times a week. Fourth, they occasionally work a part-time job - if only due to the pressure imposed by their parents. Last, and most important, they receive unemployment benefit credits and renew their membership on the "unemployment list" from time to time, so that the state subsidies don't run out during their "temporary" hibernation.
It would be very unfair to put all the blame on them for their lack of initiative. They play a vital part in what is called the "Atlas generation." They have the weight of the world on their shoulders, and they are going to be the ones in charge of paying for the economic sins of their parents. It is important to analyze the reasons why this social group has appeared, what the situation is like today, and what the consequences will be of this phenomenon in the future.
For the last ten years, and especially since the recent financial crisis started, Spanish unemployment has risen astronomically, reaching a record of around 20%. This, of course, does not count the thousands of illegal immigrants, who don't appear in the official state statistics.
Aside from the vast number of unemployed, another significant group of people work in part-time jobs with "garbage contracts" or very low salaries. Members of this group are called mileuristas (those who earn only €1,000/month). This group appears above the jovenes in the social pyramid. Mileuristas normally live at home and dream of becoming economically sufficient eventually, or they live in cheap rented apartments funded by state money, which comes directly from taxpayers' pockets.
Finally, we find a smaller group at the top of the pyramid. This group is formed by either a lucky few, or in some cases, hardworking and generally outstanding young people. This group has very decent jobs (normally around €2,000/month starting salary) and are the sons and daughters of wealthy families that normally receive a more-or-less high-quality private education. They end up employed in the family business or in some firm where their parents or family members have contacts.
Outside of this pyramid we will also find a group of people that decide to study for an "oposición" (state exam) in order to work for the government. Depending on the complexity of their education, and their success on the exam, they will end up working for the first time between the ages of 26 and 35 and will be decently, or even very well paid, for the rest of their lives.
It is also very important to give special attention to the number of years that people are called "students" in Spain. The quality of a university graduate has been devalued in recent years to the point where an employer will no longer be impressed at all by an undergraduate degree in a job interview. Consequently, at least a master's degree or some kind of postcollege specialization accompanied by proficiency in at least three languages is demanded. This, of course, means more years spent as a student and, for the most privileged ones, a year or two living and exploring foreign languages abroad.
Not so long ago in Spain, it was an honor to have a college degree and even more prestigious to hold a graduate degree, which only a few people could achieve due to the expense and hard work that it involved. Now it is almost free to study in a Spanish public university. This is viewed as a great accomplishment that gives opportunities to people from lower classes, who will sometimes end up forming part of the group of "hard working and outstanding young people." But, to be honest, this group is quite small. The effort to make it easier to be a student is largely a way for the government to lower the unemployment rate.
In order to explain why it is so hard for recent graduates to obtain a decent job in Spain, it is important to know that labor costs are very high for employers - a consequence of strict laws that protect workers. Four weeks' vacation a year is the mandatory minimum. An artificially high minimum wage places a floor under the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, creating a devastating imbalance. This means there is a huge demand for jobs and little desire on the part of employers to fulfill it.
Additional reasons for the lack of job offers in Spain include the excessive finiquito, the final pay a worker is entitled to under Spanish law when fired: 45 days of salary for each year worked at the company. Furthermore, taxes on employers are very high - at least a 50 percent of each worker's annual salary, which means that if someone is paid €20,000 a year, it costs their employer at least €30,000 a year to hire them. All this makes an employer very reluctant to hire an employee, which creates a high rate of unemployment and a huge number of "garbage contracts." These taxes also promote black-market activity, which either sidesteps the established rules or ignores them altogether.
The taxes on employee wages are very high as well, which brings us back to the mileurista social status. These taxes create a substitution effect: firms have become desperate for new technologies to reduce labor inputs. One recent example in Spain is McDonald's move to start substituting workers with new machines that take the order for the customer, reducing the number of workers. The goal is to leave only two sets of employees - the ones in the kitchen and ones that hand the food to you at the counter.
Spain's misfortunes have been complicated since joining the eurozone. The ability to obtain very low interest rates to borrow money - the same interest rates as in more powerful and savings-oriented economies like Germany - worked as an incentive for companies to borrow money for infrastructure and housing construction. Around 800,000 houses have been built each year in Spain, more than France, Germany, and England combined. This meant a surge in the supply of jobs in construction industries. Unfortunately, this demand for labor was met mostly by immigrants who now find themselves unemployed with few possibilities. Huge loans to finance this housing boom, especially from the Spanish "cajas" (saving banks) now cannot be paid back and have resulted in a huge government bailout.
As a result, the Spanish government has undertaken an increasingly large debt, financed by the continual issuance of new bonds. This borrowing has strained Spain's public finances, lowered its bond rating, and reduced the demand investors have to continue funding this deficit spending.
At the same time, the bust has caused a severe decline in tax receipts, especially in taxes like the IVA (value-added tax). Consequently the state has received less income and in response is now increasing consumption taxes to cover the shortfall (effective next month). These increased taxes will, in the end, translate to less spending and more constrained profits for all producers. They will also make Spain a very unattractive place for companies worldwide to start or continue their business.
All these effects will ultimately mean more unemployment, which takes us back to the young "Atlas generation." Ironically, many members of this generation have complete faith in the government to take care of all these issues for them. They choose to stay at home until they are middle-aged and delay getting married and creating a family until their mid-to-late 30s. They also have an increasingly huge debt issue, which they will eventually have to take care of.
If current trends continue, within a few short years in Spain each employee will have to pay for one pensioner on social security. Only 40 years ago, ten employees took care of one pensioner through their social-security contributions. The Atlas generation, by putting off marriage and children, has worsened this worker-pensioner imbalance. The yearly rate of births per fertile woman in Spain is only 1.2, one of the lowest in the world, and it will likely decline in coming years.
The only way to solve this problem would be to lower taxes, especially employment taxes, dramatically. Doing so would encourage employers to offer more jobs and employees to have larger families. Unfortunately, this option isn't of much interest for the politicians in Spain, who prefer to maintain the socialist status quo regardless of which political party is in power.
Jaime Levy Moreno,
for The Daily Reckoning
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
WHAT ON EARTH HAPPENED? WELL JUST FIGURED OUT, WAY TO LATE, THAT RATING AGENCIES CONFIRMED UK DEBT AT AAA, WHILE A DOWNGRADE WAS MORE OR LESS DISCOUNTED IN THE MARKET.
THE RESULT IS THAT CABLE DRAGS EUR/USD UP, WHICH DRAGS EUR/YEN UP, WHICH CAUSES GBP/YEN BUYING!196 POINTS LOSS THANKS TO THAT CRAZY DECISION!!
THE RESULT IS THAT CABLE DRAGS EUR/USD UP, WHICH DRAGS EUR/YEN UP, WHICH CAUSES GBP/YEN BUYING!196 POINTS LOSS THANKS TO THAT CRAZY DECISION!!
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