DUE TO PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES I WAS NOT ABLE ANYMORE TO KEEP UP THE BLOG. SOME OF YOU MIGHT REMEMBER THAT I ALREADY AT AN EARLIER STAGE COMPLAINT ABOUT MY LACK OF TIME.
SOON I WILL RETART THIS BLOG. i AM STILL BRAINSTORMING ABOUT THE CONTENTS. iT WILL BE SOMETHING GOOD;GIVE ME A LITTLE MORE TIME AND I LL BE BACK!
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Friday, September 3, 2010
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
OK GUYS WE ARE GOING TO CLOSE ANOTHER TERRIBLE MONTH AND WITH THAT I HOPE WE CLOSE DOWN THIS WHOLE DARN SUMMER PERIOD.IT WAS LONG AND HOT AS PREDICTED.WE SAW A GENERALLY LETHARGIC MARKET WITH LOW LIQUIDITY. I EXPECT MANY OPERATORS TO GET BACK FROM THEIR HOLYDAYS THIS WEEK AND THAT MARKET WILL PICK UP SERIOUSLY AS FROM NEXT WEEK INTO THE YEAR END. WE KEEP DE 2 POSITIONS: LONG EUR/SFR AT 12913 AND SHORT EUR/USD AT 12693.
i LL UPDATE THE RESULTS IN P&L AND IT WILL BE UPLOADED TO THE BLOG AGAIN IN THE EXCEL SHEET AS NORMALLY. HAVE A GOOD WEEK END.
i LL UPDATE THE RESULTS IN P&L AND IT WILL BE UPLOADED TO THE BLOG AGAIN IN THE EXCEL SHEET AS NORMALLY. HAVE A GOOD WEEK END.
Monday, August 30, 2010
OK A QUESTION THAT KEEPS COMING BACK IS THE ONE ABOUT THE HOLY STOP LOSSES. USUALLY I DO NOT USE THEM AS I KEEP A LOW LEVERAGE OF 1:1 TO 1:5 ONLY RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 4 POSITIONS OUSTANDING SO THE LEVERAGE IS 1:4 I DO NOT MENTION AMOUNTS NEITHER:
IF YOU HAVE A 50K ACCOUNT "1" OR "1" UNIT MEANS 50K. A 1:4 LEVERAGE ON A 50K ACCOUNT MEANS A POSITIONS OF 200K MAX. I USED TO USE WORDS LIKE LOT, BUT THAT IMPLIED I WOULD HAVE HAD AN AT LEAST 100K ACCOUNT. E.G. BUY 5 LOTS=0.5 MIO. THAT LEAD SOMETIMES TO
REACTIONS OF JALEOUS AMD ENVIOUS PEOPLE. SO I CHANGED IT TO WHAT IT IS NOW.
USUALLY I TRADE WITH THE L/T TREND. IF I DO STOPS ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER WHEN I DECIDE TO COUNTER TREND I DO USE STOPS. NOT ALWAYS I WOULD SET A FIXED LEVEL BUT RATHER LEAVE IT TO THE FINANCIAL POSIBILITIES OF THE FOLLOWERS. FOLLOWING MY THREAD INCLUDES SOME SELF THINKING TOO.
IF YOU HAVE A 50K ACCOUNT "1" OR "1" UNIT MEANS 50K. A 1:4 LEVERAGE ON A 50K ACCOUNT MEANS A POSITIONS OF 200K MAX. I USED TO USE WORDS LIKE LOT, BUT THAT IMPLIED I WOULD HAVE HAD AN AT LEAST 100K ACCOUNT. E.G. BUY 5 LOTS=0.5 MIO. THAT LEAD SOMETIMES TO
REACTIONS OF JALEOUS AMD ENVIOUS PEOPLE. SO I CHANGED IT TO WHAT IT IS NOW.
USUALLY I TRADE WITH THE L/T TREND. IF I DO STOPS ARE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER WHEN I DECIDE TO COUNTER TREND I DO USE STOPS. NOT ALWAYS I WOULD SET A FIXED LEVEL BUT RATHER LEAVE IT TO THE FINANCIAL POSIBILITIES OF THE FOLLOWERS. FOLLOWING MY THREAD INCLUDES SOME SELF THINKING TOO.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Monday, August 16, 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Friday, August 6, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
Friday, July 30, 2010
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
SELL ONE MORE GBP/SFR AT 16630 STOP ABOVE THE OLD TOP AT 16345
AM AFRAID MY COMPUTER WILL COLLAPSE ANYTIME SOON AS THE VIRUS IS EATING ITS WAY RAPIDLY THRU THE PUTER AND NOT ONE ANTI VIRUS/MALWARE COULD FIND IT SOFAR......
I DON'T KNOW TO RE INSTALL WITHOUT LOSING DATA. ANYONE PERHAPS? IF NOT I LL BE WITHOUT A PUTER AT LEAST 3 DAYS....
GOOD LUCK
AM AFRAID MY COMPUTER WILL COLLAPSE ANYTIME SOON AS THE VIRUS IS EATING ITS WAY RAPIDLY THRU THE PUTER AND NOT ONE ANTI VIRUS/MALWARE COULD FIND IT SOFAR......
I DON'T KNOW TO RE INSTALL WITHOUT LOSING DATA. ANYONE PERHAPS? IF NOT I LL BE WITHOUT A PUTER AT LEAST 3 DAYS....
GOOD LUCK
Monday, July 26, 2010
Friday, July 23, 2010
SORRY FOR NOT UPDATING OF COURSE THE STOP WAS DONE. ACTUALLY I FORGOT TO PLACE MY OWN SO I AM PRETTY MUCH IN PROFIT. BUT THAT DOESNT COUNT FOR THE BLOG STATISTICS SO I NOOKED IT IN THE P&L AS A LOSS. SEEMS EURO WANTS FINALLY GO TO THE 13000 LEVEL AND UP.
WELL I RATHER WAIT TILL THE 13200 LEVEL COMES IN SIGHT. FROM THERE WE WILL SELL EVERYTHING HARD, ESP AGAINST YEN....BARE WITH ME. PFFF ITS A LONG HOT SUMMER MY FRIENDS....A REAL TOUGH ONE IN MANY ASPECTS....
WELL I RATHER WAIT TILL THE 13200 LEVEL COMES IN SIGHT. FROM THERE WE WILL SELL EVERYTHING HARD, ESP AGAINST YEN....BARE WITH ME. PFFF ITS A LONG HOT SUMMER MY FRIENDS....A REAL TOUGH ONE IN MANY ASPECTS....
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
HI GUYS I AM BACK. TOOK A BREAK AND HAD SOME OTHER THINGS TO TAKE CARE OFF.
THE LAST TRADE WAS A EUR/USD 5 PIECES SHORT WHICH I TOOK BACVK EACH WITH 100 POINTS LOSS.SO 500 IN TOTAL......WE WILL WATCH NEW OPPORTUNITIES.I WOULD LIKE TO BUY EUR/USD AROUND 12800 AND SELL AT 13230.LET'S KEEPS AN EYE OUT. FOR THE MOMENT ALL SQUARE.
THE LAST TRADE WAS A EUR/USD 5 PIECES SHORT WHICH I TOOK BACVK EACH WITH 100 POINTS LOSS.SO 500 IN TOTAL......WE WILL WATCH NEW OPPORTUNITIES.I WOULD LIKE TO BUY EUR/USD AROUND 12800 AND SELL AT 13230.LET'S KEEPS AN EYE OUT. FOR THE MOMENT ALL SQUARE.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
Friday, June 25, 2010
Thursday, June 24, 2010
OK GUYS 03.50 AM HERE GOTTA REST A BIT. kEEP A STOP JUST ABOBE THE 150I CABLE (ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD HOLD IMHO) AND TO EURO/YEN...DOWNTREND VERY MUCH IN TACT AND WILL COME OFF AGAIN. KEEP STOPS JUST ABOVE 111.10. MARKET HAS BEEN TERIBLE AGAIN ALTOUGH OVERALL WE DIDNT DO TOO BAD. lIQUIDITY,I REPEAT IS DRAMATIC AT CERTAIN HOURS OF THE DAY.I AM FED UP WITH THOSE SOCCER GAMES, APART FROM THE FACT THAT IT'S THE WORSE TOURNAMENT I HAVE EVER SEEN SOFAR. ANYWAYS WE KEEP FIGHTING! GOOD NITE AND REGARDS
PETER
PETER
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials retained a pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low for an “extended period” and signaled that European indebtedness may harm American growth.
“The economic recovery is proceeding” and “the labor market is improving gradually,” the Fed’s Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. Still, “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.”
KIND OF HYSTERICAL REACTION THIS. I SOLD ONE MORE EUR/YEN AT 11086
“The economic recovery is proceeding” and “the labor market is improving gradually,” the Fed’s Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. Still, “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.”
KIND OF HYSTERICAL REACTION THIS. I SOLD ONE MORE EUR/YEN AT 11086
OK GUYS IN CABLE WE MAKE A DOUBLE TOP RES. AT 14935 FOR EUR/USD COUNTS GOOD SUPPORT AROUND 12260 IF ONE OF THEM DOES BREAK OUT STOP YOURSELVES OUT! i DON'T THINK IT SHOULD HAPPEN AS IT WOULD SET DOWNWARD PRESSURE AT EUR/GBP WHICH JUST MADE A TRIPPLE BOTTOM AND IS VERY OVERSOLD. CABLE IS VERY OVERBOUGHT BTW. TAKE CARE!
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Why are we surprised by a ‘good’ Spanish auction?
By Jamie Coleman || June 17, 2010 at 13:35 GMT
The ECB is buying euro government debt with both hands and vows to do more…
The next headline is ‘market relief’ that the Spanish auction went okay.
The logic is a bit circular to me. How can the auction go badly if the central bank is in the market keeping a bid under it? Of all the reasons for the euro rally, THAT one is the weakest, to me......
I CAN'T AGREE MORE!
By Jamie Coleman || June 17, 2010 at 13:35 GMT
The ECB is buying euro government debt with both hands and vows to do more…
The next headline is ‘market relief’ that the Spanish auction went okay.
The logic is a bit circular to me. How can the auction go badly if the central bank is in the market keeping a bid under it? Of all the reasons for the euro rally, THAT one is the weakest, to me......
I CAN'T AGREE MORE!
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
HI GUYS,ALTHO STOPS WERE JUST HIT,I PERSONALLY DID NOT PLACE THEM,SO I AM STILL IN.
I OFTEN RECEIVE THE QUESTION WHY NOT PLACING STOPS. STOP LOSSES HAVE THE PROPERTY OF USUALLY BEING DONE,AFTER WHICH THE PRICE GOES BACK YOUR WAY.LAST NIGHT WAS A GREAT EXAMPLE ONCE AGAIN.I KNOW SOMETIMES YOU GO FLAT ON YOUR FACE BUT IF YOU OFF SET THAT AGAINST THE NUMEROUS TIMES YOU WERE STOPPED OUT FOR NOTHING IT'S CLEAR THAT THE LATTER IS THE MOST ECONOMICAL OPTION BY FAR,QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM.CONDITION IS OF COURSE THAT YOU ARE NOT OVERLEVERAGED LIKE ABOVE 1:10
I OFTEN RECEIVE THE QUESTION WHY NOT PLACING STOPS. STOP LOSSES HAVE THE PROPERTY OF USUALLY BEING DONE,AFTER WHICH THE PRICE GOES BACK YOUR WAY.LAST NIGHT WAS A GREAT EXAMPLE ONCE AGAIN.I KNOW SOMETIMES YOU GO FLAT ON YOUR FACE BUT IF YOU OFF SET THAT AGAINST THE NUMEROUS TIMES YOU WERE STOPPED OUT FOR NOTHING IT'S CLEAR THAT THE LATTER IS THE MOST ECONOMICAL OPTION BY FAR,QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM.CONDITION IS OF COURSE THAT YOU ARE NOT OVERLEVERAGED LIKE ABOVE 1:10
STOPS AT 12350 AND 14840
IF DONE I LL TAKE A BREAK FROM TRADING.NO CLUE WHATS GOING ON HERE,IT'S CLEAR CENTRAL BANKS PLAYING GAMES IN THE BACKRGOUND AND NO OPEN MARKET INTERVENTION.IT'S ANYYONE'S GUESS WHERE WE WILL BE HEADING FOR.I ASSUMKE 124/125 OR WHO KNOWS WHERE, THE MOVE GOES AGAINST ALL FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS, I CAN'T BEAT THIS. SORRY FOR THAT....AND I CERTAINLY WILL NOT TRADE AGAINST FUNDAMENTALS AND MANIPULATIONS. SORRY. THANKS.
IF DONE I LL TAKE A BREAK FROM TRADING.NO CLUE WHATS GOING ON HERE,IT'S CLEAR CENTRAL BANKS PLAYING GAMES IN THE BACKRGOUND AND NO OPEN MARKET INTERVENTION.IT'S ANYYONE'S GUESS WHERE WE WILL BE HEADING FOR.I ASSUMKE 124/125 OR WHO KNOWS WHERE, THE MOVE GOES AGAINST ALL FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS, I CAN'T BEAT THIS. SORRY FOR THAT....AND I CERTAINLY WILL NOT TRADE AGAINST FUNDAMENTALS AND MANIPULATIONS. SORRY. THANKS.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Monday, June 14, 2010
OK GUYS I SQUARED THE ENTIRE SHORT POSITION AT 12195 TAKING A RECORD 1000 POINTS LOSS.
I REEALLY UNDERESTIMATED THIS EUR/USD CORRECTION BUT AS YOU CAN ALL SEE I8TS ONE STEP BACK AND 3 FORWARD. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT EUR/USD WILL GO TO 118/115 LATER BUT WHAT I DO NOT KNOW IS FROM WHERE. KEY RESISTANCXE LEVEL HAVE BEEN BROKEN WITH EASY ALL ALST WEEK AND TODAY. SNB INTERVENTION LOOMS ALL THE TIME. MARKETS ARE VERY THIN AND ILLIQUID (-75%)MR BROKER TOLD ME THANKS TO THE SOCCER GAMES. WE MISS TWO WAY TRADING. SO WE COULD GO TO 12500 FIRST. UNDER THE CISCUMTANCES EVERYTHING SEMS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOMENT. REALLY, MY WORST TRADE SINCE I STARTED SINCE APRIL 2009. SORRY!
I REEALLY UNDERESTIMATED THIS EUR/USD CORRECTION BUT AS YOU CAN ALL SEE I8TS ONE STEP BACK AND 3 FORWARD. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT EUR/USD WILL GO TO 118/115 LATER BUT WHAT I DO NOT KNOW IS FROM WHERE. KEY RESISTANCXE LEVEL HAVE BEEN BROKEN WITH EASY ALL ALST WEEK AND TODAY. SNB INTERVENTION LOOMS ALL THE TIME. MARKETS ARE VERY THIN AND ILLIQUID (-75%)MR BROKER TOLD ME THANKS TO THE SOCCER GAMES. WE MISS TWO WAY TRADING. SO WE COULD GO TO 12500 FIRST. UNDER THE CISCUMTANCES EVERYTHING SEMS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOMENT. REALLY, MY WORST TRADE SINCE I STARTED SINCE APRIL 2009. SORRY!
Friday, June 11, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Monday, June 7, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
OK GUYS HAVE REVALUED THE LONG EUR/UDS POSITION AT 1.2000 LET'S KEEP A STOP IN AT 1.1950 ALTHOUGH I HAVEN'T TURNED BULLISH AT ALL I DO THINK WE ARE IN HEAVY OVERSOLD TERRITORY AND I EXPECT A REBOUND TO THE 12100 LEVEL AT LEAST FROM WHERE WE WILL START SELLING AGAIN FOR A FINAL DIP TO THE 1.1500 LEVEL. RESULT FOR THE WEEK 213 POINTS ONLY.
BUT SEEN THE SHORT AND NASTY MOVES ON TUESDAY I AM NOT UNHAPPY WITH IT. LOT OF BLOOD IN THE STREETS THIS WEEK. THANK YOU AND HAVE A NICE W/E
BUT SEEN THE SHORT AND NASTY MOVES ON TUESDAY I AM NOT UNHAPPY WITH IT. LOT OF BLOOD IN THE STREETS THIS WEEK. THANK YOU AND HAVE A NICE W/E
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Spain's Dropout Generation
Jaime Levy Moreno
[Ed. Note: This article originally appeared on the indispensible Mises.org website on Tuesday, June 01, 2010.]
In the last two decades in Mediterranean Europe, and especially in Spain, a new social group has emerged, called jovenes (youngsters). Members of this group exhibit several specific characteristics. First, jovenes are usually male, aged 25-35, although some members are in their 40s. Second, they are in a perpetual state between graduation and their first job. Third, they usually live with their parents to save money, allowing them to go out at least three times a week. Fourth, they occasionally work a part-time job - if only due to the pressure imposed by their parents. Last, and most important, they receive unemployment benefit credits and renew their membership on the "unemployment list" from time to time, so that the state subsidies don't run out during their "temporary" hibernation.
It would be very unfair to put all the blame on them for their lack of initiative. They play a vital part in what is called the "Atlas generation." They have the weight of the world on their shoulders, and they are going to be the ones in charge of paying for the economic sins of their parents. It is important to analyze the reasons why this social group has appeared, what the situation is like today, and what the consequences will be of this phenomenon in the future.
For the last ten years, and especially since the recent financial crisis started, Spanish unemployment has risen astronomically, reaching a record of around 20%. This, of course, does not count the thousands of illegal immigrants, who don't appear in the official state statistics.
Aside from the vast number of unemployed, another significant group of people work in part-time jobs with "garbage contracts" or very low salaries. Members of this group are called mileuristas (those who earn only €1,000/month). This group appears above the jovenes in the social pyramid. Mileuristas normally live at home and dream of becoming economically sufficient eventually, or they live in cheap rented apartments funded by state money, which comes directly from taxpayers' pockets.
Finally, we find a smaller group at the top of the pyramid. This group is formed by either a lucky few, or in some cases, hardworking and generally outstanding young people. This group has very decent jobs (normally around €2,000/month starting salary) and are the sons and daughters of wealthy families that normally receive a more-or-less high-quality private education. They end up employed in the family business or in some firm where their parents or family members have contacts.
Outside of this pyramid we will also find a group of people that decide to study for an "oposición" (state exam) in order to work for the government. Depending on the complexity of their education, and their success on the exam, they will end up working for the first time between the ages of 26 and 35 and will be decently, or even very well paid, for the rest of their lives.
It is also very important to give special attention to the number of years that people are called "students" in Spain. The quality of a university graduate has been devalued in recent years to the point where an employer will no longer be impressed at all by an undergraduate degree in a job interview. Consequently, at least a master's degree or some kind of postcollege specialization accompanied by proficiency in at least three languages is demanded. This, of course, means more years spent as a student and, for the most privileged ones, a year or two living and exploring foreign languages abroad.
Not so long ago in Spain, it was an honor to have a college degree and even more prestigious to hold a graduate degree, which only a few people could achieve due to the expense and hard work that it involved. Now it is almost free to study in a Spanish public university. This is viewed as a great accomplishment that gives opportunities to people from lower classes, who will sometimes end up forming part of the group of "hard working and outstanding young people." But, to be honest, this group is quite small. The effort to make it easier to be a student is largely a way for the government to lower the unemployment rate.
In order to explain why it is so hard for recent graduates to obtain a decent job in Spain, it is important to know that labor costs are very high for employers - a consequence of strict laws that protect workers. Four weeks' vacation a year is the mandatory minimum. An artificially high minimum wage places a floor under the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, creating a devastating imbalance. This means there is a huge demand for jobs and little desire on the part of employers to fulfill it.
Additional reasons for the lack of job offers in Spain include the excessive finiquito, the final pay a worker is entitled to under Spanish law when fired: 45 days of salary for each year worked at the company. Furthermore, taxes on employers are very high - at least a 50 percent of each worker's annual salary, which means that if someone is paid €20,000 a year, it costs their employer at least €30,000 a year to hire them. All this makes an employer very reluctant to hire an employee, which creates a high rate of unemployment and a huge number of "garbage contracts." These taxes also promote black-market activity, which either sidesteps the established rules or ignores them altogether.
The taxes on employee wages are very high as well, which brings us back to the mileurista social status. These taxes create a substitution effect: firms have become desperate for new technologies to reduce labor inputs. One recent example in Spain is McDonald's move to start substituting workers with new machines that take the order for the customer, reducing the number of workers. The goal is to leave only two sets of employees - the ones in the kitchen and ones that hand the food to you at the counter.
Spain's misfortunes have been complicated since joining the eurozone. The ability to obtain very low interest rates to borrow money - the same interest rates as in more powerful and savings-oriented economies like Germany - worked as an incentive for companies to borrow money for infrastructure and housing construction. Around 800,000 houses have been built each year in Spain, more than France, Germany, and England combined. This meant a surge in the supply of jobs in construction industries. Unfortunately, this demand for labor was met mostly by immigrants who now find themselves unemployed with few possibilities. Huge loans to finance this housing boom, especially from the Spanish "cajas" (saving banks) now cannot be paid back and have resulted in a huge government bailout.
As a result, the Spanish government has undertaken an increasingly large debt, financed by the continual issuance of new bonds. This borrowing has strained Spain's public finances, lowered its bond rating, and reduced the demand investors have to continue funding this deficit spending.
At the same time, the bust has caused a severe decline in tax receipts, especially in taxes like the IVA (value-added tax). Consequently the state has received less income and in response is now increasing consumption taxes to cover the shortfall (effective next month). These increased taxes will, in the end, translate to less spending and more constrained profits for all producers. They will also make Spain a very unattractive place for companies worldwide to start or continue their business.
All these effects will ultimately mean more unemployment, which takes us back to the young "Atlas generation." Ironically, many members of this generation have complete faith in the government to take care of all these issues for them. They choose to stay at home until they are middle-aged and delay getting married and creating a family until their mid-to-late 30s. They also have an increasingly huge debt issue, which they will eventually have to take care of.
If current trends continue, within a few short years in Spain each employee will have to pay for one pensioner on social security. Only 40 years ago, ten employees took care of one pensioner through their social-security contributions. The Atlas generation, by putting off marriage and children, has worsened this worker-pensioner imbalance. The yearly rate of births per fertile woman in Spain is only 1.2, one of the lowest in the world, and it will likely decline in coming years.
The only way to solve this problem would be to lower taxes, especially employment taxes, dramatically. Doing so would encourage employers to offer more jobs and employees to have larger families. Unfortunately, this option isn't of much interest for the politicians in Spain, who prefer to maintain the socialist status quo regardless of which political party is in power.
Jaime Levy Moreno,
for The Daily Reckoning
Jaime Levy Moreno
[Ed. Note: This article originally appeared on the indispensible Mises.org website on Tuesday, June 01, 2010.]
In the last two decades in Mediterranean Europe, and especially in Spain, a new social group has emerged, called jovenes (youngsters). Members of this group exhibit several specific characteristics. First, jovenes are usually male, aged 25-35, although some members are in their 40s. Second, they are in a perpetual state between graduation and their first job. Third, they usually live with their parents to save money, allowing them to go out at least three times a week. Fourth, they occasionally work a part-time job - if only due to the pressure imposed by their parents. Last, and most important, they receive unemployment benefit credits and renew their membership on the "unemployment list" from time to time, so that the state subsidies don't run out during their "temporary" hibernation.
It would be very unfair to put all the blame on them for their lack of initiative. They play a vital part in what is called the "Atlas generation." They have the weight of the world on their shoulders, and they are going to be the ones in charge of paying for the economic sins of their parents. It is important to analyze the reasons why this social group has appeared, what the situation is like today, and what the consequences will be of this phenomenon in the future.
For the last ten years, and especially since the recent financial crisis started, Spanish unemployment has risen astronomically, reaching a record of around 20%. This, of course, does not count the thousands of illegal immigrants, who don't appear in the official state statistics.
Aside from the vast number of unemployed, another significant group of people work in part-time jobs with "garbage contracts" or very low salaries. Members of this group are called mileuristas (those who earn only €1,000/month). This group appears above the jovenes in the social pyramid. Mileuristas normally live at home and dream of becoming economically sufficient eventually, or they live in cheap rented apartments funded by state money, which comes directly from taxpayers' pockets.
Finally, we find a smaller group at the top of the pyramid. This group is formed by either a lucky few, or in some cases, hardworking and generally outstanding young people. This group has very decent jobs (normally around €2,000/month starting salary) and are the sons and daughters of wealthy families that normally receive a more-or-less high-quality private education. They end up employed in the family business or in some firm where their parents or family members have contacts.
Outside of this pyramid we will also find a group of people that decide to study for an "oposición" (state exam) in order to work for the government. Depending on the complexity of their education, and their success on the exam, they will end up working for the first time between the ages of 26 and 35 and will be decently, or even very well paid, for the rest of their lives.
It is also very important to give special attention to the number of years that people are called "students" in Spain. The quality of a university graduate has been devalued in recent years to the point where an employer will no longer be impressed at all by an undergraduate degree in a job interview. Consequently, at least a master's degree or some kind of postcollege specialization accompanied by proficiency in at least three languages is demanded. This, of course, means more years spent as a student and, for the most privileged ones, a year or two living and exploring foreign languages abroad.
Not so long ago in Spain, it was an honor to have a college degree and even more prestigious to hold a graduate degree, which only a few people could achieve due to the expense and hard work that it involved. Now it is almost free to study in a Spanish public university. This is viewed as a great accomplishment that gives opportunities to people from lower classes, who will sometimes end up forming part of the group of "hard working and outstanding young people." But, to be honest, this group is quite small. The effort to make it easier to be a student is largely a way for the government to lower the unemployment rate.
In order to explain why it is so hard for recent graduates to obtain a decent job in Spain, it is important to know that labor costs are very high for employers - a consequence of strict laws that protect workers. Four weeks' vacation a year is the mandatory minimum. An artificially high minimum wage places a floor under the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, creating a devastating imbalance. This means there is a huge demand for jobs and little desire on the part of employers to fulfill it.
Additional reasons for the lack of job offers in Spain include the excessive finiquito, the final pay a worker is entitled to under Spanish law when fired: 45 days of salary for each year worked at the company. Furthermore, taxes on employers are very high - at least a 50 percent of each worker's annual salary, which means that if someone is paid €20,000 a year, it costs their employer at least €30,000 a year to hire them. All this makes an employer very reluctant to hire an employee, which creates a high rate of unemployment and a huge number of "garbage contracts." These taxes also promote black-market activity, which either sidesteps the established rules or ignores them altogether.
The taxes on employee wages are very high as well, which brings us back to the mileurista social status. These taxes create a substitution effect: firms have become desperate for new technologies to reduce labor inputs. One recent example in Spain is McDonald's move to start substituting workers with new machines that take the order for the customer, reducing the number of workers. The goal is to leave only two sets of employees - the ones in the kitchen and ones that hand the food to you at the counter.
Spain's misfortunes have been complicated since joining the eurozone. The ability to obtain very low interest rates to borrow money - the same interest rates as in more powerful and savings-oriented economies like Germany - worked as an incentive for companies to borrow money for infrastructure and housing construction. Around 800,000 houses have been built each year in Spain, more than France, Germany, and England combined. This meant a surge in the supply of jobs in construction industries. Unfortunately, this demand for labor was met mostly by immigrants who now find themselves unemployed with few possibilities. Huge loans to finance this housing boom, especially from the Spanish "cajas" (saving banks) now cannot be paid back and have resulted in a huge government bailout.
As a result, the Spanish government has undertaken an increasingly large debt, financed by the continual issuance of new bonds. This borrowing has strained Spain's public finances, lowered its bond rating, and reduced the demand investors have to continue funding this deficit spending.
At the same time, the bust has caused a severe decline in tax receipts, especially in taxes like the IVA (value-added tax). Consequently the state has received less income and in response is now increasing consumption taxes to cover the shortfall (effective next month). These increased taxes will, in the end, translate to less spending and more constrained profits for all producers. They will also make Spain a very unattractive place for companies worldwide to start or continue their business.
All these effects will ultimately mean more unemployment, which takes us back to the young "Atlas generation." Ironically, many members of this generation have complete faith in the government to take care of all these issues for them. They choose to stay at home until they are middle-aged and delay getting married and creating a family until their mid-to-late 30s. They also have an increasingly huge debt issue, which they will eventually have to take care of.
If current trends continue, within a few short years in Spain each employee will have to pay for one pensioner on social security. Only 40 years ago, ten employees took care of one pensioner through their social-security contributions. The Atlas generation, by putting off marriage and children, has worsened this worker-pensioner imbalance. The yearly rate of births per fertile woman in Spain is only 1.2, one of the lowest in the world, and it will likely decline in coming years.
The only way to solve this problem would be to lower taxes, especially employment taxes, dramatically. Doing so would encourage employers to offer more jobs and employees to have larger families. Unfortunately, this option isn't of much interest for the politicians in Spain, who prefer to maintain the socialist status quo regardless of which political party is in power.
Jaime Levy Moreno,
for The Daily Reckoning
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
WHAT ON EARTH HAPPENED? WELL JUST FIGURED OUT, WAY TO LATE, THAT RATING AGENCIES CONFIRMED UK DEBT AT AAA, WHILE A DOWNGRADE WAS MORE OR LESS DISCOUNTED IN THE MARKET.
THE RESULT IS THAT CABLE DRAGS EUR/USD UP, WHICH DRAGS EUR/YEN UP, WHICH CAUSES GBP/YEN BUYING!196 POINTS LOSS THANKS TO THAT CRAZY DECISION!!
THE RESULT IS THAT CABLE DRAGS EUR/USD UP, WHICH DRAGS EUR/YEN UP, WHICH CAUSES GBP/YEN BUYING!196 POINTS LOSS THANKS TO THAT CRAZY DECISION!!
Monday, May 31, 2010
Saturday, May 29, 2010
READING THE LAST POST IT SEEMS WE MUST TRY TO GET SHORT IN EURO OR AUD AT A DECENT RATE SUNDAY EVENING. I AM AFRAID WE WILL OPEN WITH A DOWN GAP. ALTHOUGH THE DOWNGRADE OF SPAIN IIS NOT THAT SEVERE IN TERMS OF QUALITY OF THEIR DEBT IT WILL ADD TO THE WHOLE OF THE EUROPEAN CRISIS.LETS WAIT AND SEE AT THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN TOMORROW.
from Ashraf Laidi
And so the Spain downgrade is the fundamental catalyst for the high profile failure by US indices to regain their much-scrutinized 200-day moving averages. Such was also the catalyst that prevented EURUSD from regaining the key $1.2440s trend line resistance. On Thursday, the Dow-30 had its worst May performance since the 1960s. A day a later, it was the worst May since 1940s. But stocks have yet to close below the May 6 lows, an occurrence which could trigger the next level of the sell-off in AUD and EUR below 0.80 and 1.21.
And so the Spain downgrade is the fundamental catalyst for the high profile failure by US indices to regain their much-scrutinized 200-day moving averages. Such was also the catalyst that prevented EURUSD from regaining the key $1.2440s trend line resistance. On Thursday, the Dow-30 had its worst May performance since the 1960s. A day a later, it was the worst May since 1940s. But stocks have yet to close below the May 6 lows, an occurrence which could trigger the next level of the sell-off in AUD and EUR below 0.80 and 1.21.
Friday, May 28, 2010
OK GUYS WEE RESULT 1764 POINTS AND MONTH RESULT A RECORD OF 4491 POINTS
MONDAYS ARE USUALLY QUIET TRADING DAYS AND ESPECIALLY THIS ONE AS IT'S 31ST OF MAY
TRADING RESUMES 1ST JUNE UNLESS I SEE AN OPPORTUNITY I CAN'T RESIST.
I RECEIVED SEVERAL MESSAGES ABOUT THE EMAIL FUNCTION. THE POINT IS THAT WITH BLOGGER(GOOGLE)SOFTWARE IT'S VERY HARD TO FIND AN EMAIL SOLUTION. IMAGINE I WOULD HAVE SAY 1000 SUBSCRIBERS AND DO 10 UPDATES A DAY. THAT WOULD IMPLY SENDING OUT 10.000 EMAILS PER DAY.NOW IMAGINE MANY MORE BLOGGERS START DOING THIS.THE SERVERLOAD WOULD BECOME TOO HIGH. THERE ARE A FEW PAID FOR SERVICES BUT DIFFICULT TO APPLY TO BLOGGER BLOGS. IT IS MY INTENTION NOW TO MIGRATE THIS WHOLE BLOG TO A WORDPRESS BLOG, WHICH OFFERS MORE PLUG IN POSSIBILITIES,ALTHOUGH AT A PRICE.TODAY I REQUESTED A BEFRIENDED WEBMASTER TO MAKE ME AN OFFER FOR THIS WHOLE MIGRATION PLUS EMAIL SERVICE AS I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO DO THAT MYSELF.ANYWAYS I THINK WORDPRESS BLOGS ARE NICER, CLEANER, TIGHTER THAN BLOGGER,WHICH IS VERY LIMITED TOO.IF YOU HAVE ANY IDEAS OR SUGGESTIONS PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE TO CONTACT ME AT RISPETER@GMAIL.COM
wISH YOU ALL A NICE W/E AND CU NEXT WEEK.
REGARDS
PETER
MONDAYS ARE USUALLY QUIET TRADING DAYS AND ESPECIALLY THIS ONE AS IT'S 31ST OF MAY
TRADING RESUMES 1ST JUNE UNLESS I SEE AN OPPORTUNITY I CAN'T RESIST.
I RECEIVED SEVERAL MESSAGES ABOUT THE EMAIL FUNCTION. THE POINT IS THAT WITH BLOGGER(GOOGLE)SOFTWARE IT'S VERY HARD TO FIND AN EMAIL SOLUTION. IMAGINE I WOULD HAVE SAY 1000 SUBSCRIBERS AND DO 10 UPDATES A DAY. THAT WOULD IMPLY SENDING OUT 10.000 EMAILS PER DAY.NOW IMAGINE MANY MORE BLOGGERS START DOING THIS.THE SERVERLOAD WOULD BECOME TOO HIGH. THERE ARE A FEW PAID FOR SERVICES BUT DIFFICULT TO APPLY TO BLOGGER BLOGS. IT IS MY INTENTION NOW TO MIGRATE THIS WHOLE BLOG TO A WORDPRESS BLOG, WHICH OFFERS MORE PLUG IN POSSIBILITIES,ALTHOUGH AT A PRICE.TODAY I REQUESTED A BEFRIENDED WEBMASTER TO MAKE ME AN OFFER FOR THIS WHOLE MIGRATION PLUS EMAIL SERVICE AS I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO DO THAT MYSELF.ANYWAYS I THINK WORDPRESS BLOGS ARE NICER, CLEANER, TIGHTER THAN BLOGGER,WHICH IS VERY LIMITED TOO.IF YOU HAVE ANY IDEAS OR SUGGESTIONS PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE TO CONTACT ME AT RISPETER@GMAIL.COM
wISH YOU ALL A NICE W/E AND CU NEXT WEEK.
REGARDS
PETER
I WAS JUST TOLD BY A SMART READER THAT THE ACTUAL RESISTANCE LEVEL IN EURO IS AT 12450 AND NOT 12430. REWATCHING MY CHART AND OTHER INFO I AM AFRAID I MUST CONFESS THAT IS CORRECT.A BAD MISTAKE ON MY END.SORRY FOR THAT GUYS......I HOPE WE WILL RETEST THE HIGHER LEVELS AGAIN IN NY AND I WOULD BE A SELLER AT 12450.SO ISF WE APPOROACH THIS LEVEL AND IT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING SELL 1 EUR AT THAT LEVEL.
HI GUYS,I WON'T BE IN TOMORROW MORNING EUROPEAN TIME. KEEP AN EYE OUT AT 12410 HOURLY RESISTANCE.IF IT BREAKS CUT OUT.I THINK IT SHOULD HOLD AS THIS REACTION UP TODAY IN ONLY NECAUSE CHINE ANNOUNCED TO STAY IN THE EURO BOND MARKET.LOGICALLY!IF YOU ARE THE BIGGEST PLAYER IN A MARKET YOU CANT'T WITHDRAW WITHOUT DAMAGING YOURSELF HEAVILY!
PEOPLE HAVE WEAK NERVES THESE DAYS.
PEOPLE HAVE WEAK NERVES THESE DAYS.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
I DO HOPE YOU FOLLOWED THE ADVICE AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST POST AND PLACED SOME STOPS.
TREND EUR STILL VERY MUCH DOWN BUT OBVIOUSLY EUR/GBP TOO.A BIG SELL ORDER EUR/GBP SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN EXECUTED OVER NIGHT. I STOPPED OUT CABLE AT 14400 WITH 15 POINTS LOSS AND BOUGH 3 EURO/USD AT 12220 FOR 190 POINTS PROFIT IN TOTAL. ALL SQUARE NOW AND LET'S SE WHAT NEW YORK SESSION BRINGS US.
TREND EUR STILL VERY MUCH DOWN BUT OBVIOUSLY EUR/GBP TOO.A BIG SELL ORDER EUR/GBP SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN EXECUTED OVER NIGHT. I STOPPED OUT CABLE AT 14400 WITH 15 POINTS LOSS AND BOUGH 3 EURO/USD AT 12220 FOR 190 POINTS PROFIT IN TOTAL. ALL SQUARE NOW AND LET'S SE WHAT NEW YORK SESSION BRINGS US.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Monday, May 24, 2010
Friday, May 21, 2010
HI GUYS WHATTA RTERRRIBLE WEEK IT WAS.FOR THE MOMENT THE CENTRAL BANKS AREE WINNING.I HAD EXPECTED SOME RESISTANCE FROM THE MARKETS,BUT DISAPPOINTINGLY MOST HAD THELMSELF
EXECU8TED AT THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.BIGGEST DAMAGE WAS DONE IN EUR/USD WHICH I REVALUED
AT 1.2550 FOR 10 UNITS AND ONE CABLE AT 14450. I HAD MY EMERGENCY STOP IN SWISS AT 14150 SO ALSO I BIG LOOSER. AM AFRAID I UNDERESTIMATED THAT PAIR AS OBVIOUSLY THE WHOLE MARKET HAD THE SAME POSITION AS WE HAD SEEN THE EASYNESS IT WAS BROUGHT UP:NOT THE SLIGHTEST ACT OF RESISTANCE.A DISAPPOINTING WEEK HOWEVER WITH A 738 POINTS LOSS(WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FLATTERED!)NEXT WEEK BETTER.
HAVE A GOOD ONE AND BEST REGARDS
PETER
EXECU8TED AT THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.BIGGEST DAMAGE WAS DONE IN EUR/USD WHICH I REVALUED
AT 1.2550 FOR 10 UNITS AND ONE CABLE AT 14450. I HAD MY EMERGENCY STOP IN SWISS AT 14150 SO ALSO I BIG LOOSER. AM AFRAID I UNDERESTIMATED THAT PAIR AS OBVIOUSLY THE WHOLE MARKET HAD THE SAME POSITION AS WE HAD SEEN THE EASYNESS IT WAS BROUGHT UP:NOT THE SLIGHTEST ACT OF RESISTANCE.A DISAPPOINTING WEEK HOWEVER WITH A 738 POINTS LOSS(WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FLATTERED!)NEXT WEEK BETTER.
HAVE A GOOD ONE AND BEST REGARDS
PETER
Thursday, May 20, 2010
2010.05.19
By Ashraf Laidi
ECB Intervention is inevitable, Gold set to catch down with other commodities & Aussie to way down under
Since neither the 750 bln IMF/EU/ECB package nor Germanys announcement to ban naked shorts succeeded in alleviating selling in the euro, coordinated central bank intervention to support the single currency is inevitable. Such action will unlikely reverse the euro's slide, but may help resurrect a 2-way market in the currency and slow down the damage.
By Ashraf Laidi
ECB Intervention is inevitable, Gold set to catch down with other commodities & Aussie to way down under
Since neither the 750 bln IMF/EU/ECB package nor Germanys announcement to ban naked shorts succeeded in alleviating selling in the euro, coordinated central bank intervention to support the single currency is inevitable. Such action will unlikely reverse the euro's slide, but may help resurrect a 2-way market in the currency and slow down the damage.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
HI GUYS A LITTLE UPDATE FROM THE BRIDGE. UNFORTUNATELY WE SAW TODAY 3 ROUNDS OF INTERVENTION BY THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK. I HOPE YOU REMEMBERED MY FRIDAY ADVISE AND STUCK A STOP FITTING WITHIN YOUR RISK PARAMETERS.FORTUNATELY I WAS ABLE TO SWUARE THE EUR/YEN JUST BEFORE THE PARTY STARTED AND SOLD AGAIN AT A MUCH HIGHR LEVEL, ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT ION PROFIT ON IT. OUR EUR/USD POSITION IS NOW 4 PIECES ON AVERAGE 12330 THERE ABOUT. MRS MERKEL DECLARED THE WAR TODAY TOWARDS THE FINANCIAL MARKETS AND SHE IS DETERMINED TO WIN THIS.WELL IF YOU THINK YOU CAN BUCK THE MARKET THE MARKET WILL BUCK YOU.ALSO PROHIBITTINNG SHORTING GERMAN BONDS IS ONLY A SIGN OF WEEKNESS. WE COULD SEE SOME MORE CORRECTION /CONSOLIDATION BUT IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME WHEN THE SELLERS COME BACK TO PUNISH MERKEL AND HER OTHER STUPID EU COLLEAGUES.
REGARDS
PETER
REGARDS
PETER
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
GOOD EVENING GUYS. NOTHING HAPPENED THIS W/E IN EUROLAND,SO THE CRISIS DOESN'T GET CLOSER TO A SOLUTION.THERE IS TALK GERMANY WANTING TO LEAVE THE EURO AND ALSO THERE IS TALK US RATING AGENCIES WANTING TO CUT FRENCH DEBT.EITHER WAY DOESNT LOOK GOOD FOR EURO.WE MAINTAIN OUR STOP.ALSO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EUR/CHF POSITION AS SNB CAN ALWAYS INTERVENE,SO PLACE A STOP ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN RISK PARAMETERS.UNFORTUNATELY I HAVE TO MAKE A VERY SHORT TRIP TO MALLORCA TOMORROW EARLY MORNING, A 30 MINUTES FLIGHT.I HOPE TO BE BACK TO BASE UPON THE NY OPENING.GOOD LUCK AND WATCH YOUR COURSE!
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Monday, May 10, 2010
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
TOTAL RESULT FOR THE WEEK 2280 POINTS PROFIT. WHAT A WEEK IT WAS. EXPECT SOME CONSOLIDATION INTO NEXT WEEK BUT DOWN TREND EUR/USD REMAINS IN TACT. KEEP SELLING THE RALLIES. CABLE IS A BIT UNCLEAR AS WE DEPEND NOW ON THE UK COALITION NEGOTIATIONS. FOR SURE THIS W/E WILL GIVE SOME CLARITY IN THIS MATTER. THANK YOU AND WISH YOU ALL A GOOD W/E.
REGARDS
PETER
REGARDS
PETER
VERY OBVIOUSLY WE ARE IN THE REBOUND NOW RE EUR/USD AND GBP/USD.SHORT COVERING,GETTING OUT OF OVERSOLD TERRITORIES ARE THE NAME OF THE GAME. HOWEVER FUNDAMENTALLY NOTHING
CHANGED. THE UK HAS ITS HUNG PARLIAMENT NOW AND THE EURO IS JUST IN THE SAME POSITION. I EXPECT A BIT MORE PROFIT TAKING AND AFTER THAT THE OLD ADAGIUM OF SELLING THE RALLIES WILL COME BACK INTO FOCUS.I EXPECT STOCK MARKETS TO COLLAPSE IN EUROPE, THE CDS MARKET GOING UP FURTHER AND THE CURRENCIES AGST US COMING UNDER RENEWED PRESSURE.
WE WILL SEE TOMORROW MORNING IN EUROPE.DONT FORGET THE NFP FIG. BUT HAVE THE FEELING THAT A GOOD NUMBER WILL LEAD TO FURTHER SELL OF WHILE A BAD NUMBER WILL PROVIDE A NICE UP SPIKE TO SELL INTO.SO THE RESULT EVENTUALLY WILL BE THE SAME.GOOD NIGHT SEE YOU TOMORROW.
CHANGED. THE UK HAS ITS HUNG PARLIAMENT NOW AND THE EURO IS JUST IN THE SAME POSITION. I EXPECT A BIT MORE PROFIT TAKING AND AFTER THAT THE OLD ADAGIUM OF SELLING THE RALLIES WILL COME BACK INTO FOCUS.I EXPECT STOCK MARKETS TO COLLAPSE IN EUROPE, THE CDS MARKET GOING UP FURTHER AND THE CURRENCIES AGST US COMING UNDER RENEWED PRESSURE.
WE WILL SEE TOMORROW MORNING IN EUROPE.DONT FORGET THE NFP FIG. BUT HAVE THE FEELING THAT A GOOD NUMBER WILL LEAD TO FURTHER SELL OF WHILE A BAD NUMBER WILL PROVIDE A NICE UP SPIKE TO SELL INTO.SO THE RESULT EVENTUALLY WILL BE THE SAME.GOOD NIGHT SEE YOU TOMORROW.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
Friday, April 23, 2010
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Friday, April 9, 2010
OK, I REVALUED THE CURRENT SHORT EUR/USD 5 UNITS AT 13475. IN SPITE OF THE EXTREMELY TOUGH WEEK, DRIVEN BY OFFICIALS,CENTRAL BANKS AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS WE CAME OUT WITH A VERY SMALL 42 POINTS PROFIT,SO AT LEAST WE SURVIVED THIS MESS SO FAR. AS 13480/00 LEVEL IS CRUCIAL TO THE VALIDATION OF THE DOWNTREND WE MUST PLACE A STOP JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL. IF BROKEN,ON A DAILY BASIS,THE TREND IS UP TECHNICALLY SPOKEN ALTHOUGH I CANNOT FIND ONE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE THAT WOULD JUSTIFY A RALLY TO SAY TO 1.38 OR 1.40
IF SOME RESCUE PACKAGE FOR GREECE IS AVAILABLE THE PROBLEMS HAVE NOT BEEN SOLVED. IT'S BRINGING GOOD MONEY TO BAD MONEY AND IT WILL BE EVAPORISED IN A FEW WEEKS IN THE
ENORMOUS GREEK OVERALL DEBT SITUATION. IT WILL APPEAR NOTHING MORE AS BUYING OR RATHER BORROWING SOME TIME FROM THE MARKETS FOR GREECE TO RESTRUCTURE ITS ECONOMY. THE GREEK POPULATION IS FIERCELY OPPOSED TO ANY GOVERNMENTAL MEASURE AND RIOTS IN THE STREETS ON ATHENS TOOK PLACE ALREADY AND SYNDICATES THREATENED TO CONTINUE DOING SO.GREECE WILL HAVE TO LEAVE THE EURO BUT OF COURSE OUR POWER HUNGRY BUROCRATS IN BRUSSELS WOULD FIND THIS HIGHLY UNWANTED. TO BE CONTINUED! HAVE A NIVE W/E
REGARDS
PETER
IF SOME RESCUE PACKAGE FOR GREECE IS AVAILABLE THE PROBLEMS HAVE NOT BEEN SOLVED. IT'S BRINGING GOOD MONEY TO BAD MONEY AND IT WILL BE EVAPORISED IN A FEW WEEKS IN THE
ENORMOUS GREEK OVERALL DEBT SITUATION. IT WILL APPEAR NOTHING MORE AS BUYING OR RATHER BORROWING SOME TIME FROM THE MARKETS FOR GREECE TO RESTRUCTURE ITS ECONOMY. THE GREEK POPULATION IS FIERCELY OPPOSED TO ANY GOVERNMENTAL MEASURE AND RIOTS IN THE STREETS ON ATHENS TOOK PLACE ALREADY AND SYNDICATES THREATENED TO CONTINUE DOING SO.GREECE WILL HAVE TO LEAVE THE EURO BUT OF COURSE OUR POWER HUNGRY BUROCRATS IN BRUSSELS WOULD FIND THIS HIGHLY UNWANTED. TO BE CONTINUED! HAVE A NIVE W/E
REGARDS
PETER
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE 13480/00 LEVEL KEY RESISTANCE OF THE DOWN TREND.
I AM VERY SCEPTICAL ABOUT THIS GREEK AID PACKAGE BUT IT'S FOR SURE NOW THAT THE EU MANOEVERED THEMSELVES IN SUCH A POSITION THAT IF THEY DO NOT OFFER A SOLID AND TANGIBLE AID PACKAGE TO GREECE THIS W/E EUR/USD WILL OPEN AT 13200 SUNDAY NIGHT!
MIND THAT PART OF THE RESCUE HAS BEEN PRICED IN NOW AT CURRENT RATES!
I AM VERY SCEPTICAL ABOUT THIS GREEK AID PACKAGE BUT IT'S FOR SURE NOW THAT THE EU MANOEVERED THEMSELVES IN SUCH A POSITION THAT IF THEY DO NOT OFFER A SOLID AND TANGIBLE AID PACKAGE TO GREECE THIS W/E EUR/USD WILL OPEN AT 13200 SUNDAY NIGHT!
MIND THAT PART OF THE RESCUE HAS BEEN PRICED IN NOW AT CURRENT RATES!
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Friday, April 2, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
GRRRrRRRR WELL WOULDN'T THIS AUD/YEN HAVE BEEN A GREAT POSITION? YES IT WOULD IF I WOULDNT HAVE GONE AGAINST MY OWN PRINCIPLE TO PLACE THOSE BLOODY STOP LOSSES. FOR THE PEOPLE THAT DONT KNOW ME. I HATE STOPS. IF YOU PLACE A STOP YOU BETTER EXECUTE RIGHT AWAY. THEY ARE USELESS. PLACING A STOP IS ASKING THE DEVIL FOR BEING EXECUTED. I NEVER USED STOPS IN MY LIVE. STOPS AR FOR IDIOTS, LIKE ME LAST NITE. WELL WE LOST A TINY 7 PIPS OVER 200K SO NO BIG DEAL, HOWEVER WITHOUT A STOP THIS POSITION WOULD BE ABOUT 240
POINTS IN PROFIT. STOPS! I HATE THEM!
POINTS IN PROFIT. STOPS! I HATE THEM!
Monday, March 29, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
OK GUYS...ITS ALL EUPHORIA ABOUT THIS "HOT BALLOON" EU AID ACTION TO GREECE IN FACT THE "AGREEMENT" ISN'T THAT GREAT. I SUSPECT THIS WILL BE ANALYZED THOROUGHLY OVER THE W/E AND THE MARKETS COULD REACT DISAPPOINTED ON MONDAY MORNING. I WON'T GO INTO DETAIL ABOUT THIS RESCUE PACKAGE. TARGET IS STILL 13200/12800 THEREFOR I SELL 2 LOTS AT 13460 MAJOR RES. AND STAY OVER THE W/E WITH THE SHORT POSITION
HI GUYS. AS FRIDAY AFTERNOONS ARE VERY OFTEN HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE IN THE FX MARKETS
I WANT TO MAKE AN EXCEPTION ON MY NON STOP LOSS POLICY. ALSO I DO NOT WISH TO JEORPARDIZE A SO FAR GREAT WEEK. HENCE BUY EUR/USD 2 LOTS AT 13408 STOP LOSS.
IF THAT IS HIT ALSO CLOSE THE USD/YEN POSITION AT THE SAME MOMENT. LET'S KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED AS I LOOK FOR 13200 THIS AFTERNOON.
I WANT TO MAKE AN EXCEPTION ON MY NON STOP LOSS POLICY. ALSO I DO NOT WISH TO JEORPARDIZE A SO FAR GREAT WEEK. HENCE BUY EUR/USD 2 LOTS AT 13408 STOP LOSS.
IF THAT IS HIT ALSO CLOSE THE USD/YEN POSITION AT THE SAME MOMENT. LET'S KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED AS I LOOK FOR 13200 THIS AFTERNOON.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
HI GUYS, SORRY LATE UPDATE, BUT TARGET AT 14990 WAS REACHED AND SQUARED THERE FOR A PROFT OF 210 POINTS RESP. 60 POINTS. ALL SQUARE NOW EXCEPT FOR AUD/NZD.
REALLY NICE THE OH SO BELOVED EU DECIDED TO LET THE OTHER MEMBER STATES BLEED FOR
ITS FINANCIAL ESCAPADES!! I HOPE SOON OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIED WILL ASK FOR SUCH LOAN FACILITIES AS WELL SO EVENTUALLY THE EURO WILL TOTALLY COLLAPSE AND CEASE TO EXIST!!
REALLY NICE THE OH SO BELOVED EU DECIDED TO LET THE OTHER MEMBER STATES BLEED FOR
ITS FINANCIAL ESCAPADES!! I HOPE SOON OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIED WILL ASK FOR SUCH LOAN FACILITIES AS WELL SO EVENTUALLY THE EURO WILL TOTALLY COLLAPSE AND CEASE TO EXIST!!
Monday, March 15, 2010
Sunday, March 14, 2010
JUST GOT BACK FROM UNEXPECTED TRIP. WOW THE MARKETS SHOWED SOME GOOD ACTION. I HOPE MOST OF YOU WERE ABLE TO BOOK SOME PROFITS IN. EXCEPT FOR AUD/NZD I HAD MY ALL MY STOPS
HIT AT BREAK EVEN. GLAD I TOOK THE TIME TO PLACE THEM OR EVEN THOUGHT ABOUT IT.
MARKET IS VEY CLOSE TO SOME IMPORTANT RES. LEVELS LIKE 15220 AND 13800. BREAK OF WHICH WILL DEFINATELY BRING US TO HIGHER LEVELS. THE GREEK SITUATION SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN "SOLVED" ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG. NOTHING WRONG, NOTHINGS GOING ON, GO BACK TO SLEEP FOLKS. ILLUMINATI HAVE IT ALL UNDER CONTROL!! OF COURSE I DON'T BELIEVE ANYTHING OF THIS BULLSHIT AND THINK THIS COVER UP WILL ONLY HELP TEMPORARILY, INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ALL POLITICIANS ARE BLAMING THE MARKETS FOR WHAT HAPPENED TO GREECE. YEAH OF COURSE WE MADE THEM SPENDING TOO MUCH. SOCIALISM WILL BRING EUROPE DOWN EVENTUALLY.
NEVER NOTICES THAT IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, THE WORST PERFORMERS HAVE SOCIALIST GOVERNMENTS? IRELAND, HOLLNAD, UK, PORTUGAL, SPAIN. GREECE. THEY ARE EXPERTS SPENDING OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY. OK I WILL SHORT CABLE ON THE OPEN WITH A CLOSE STOP LOSS. BEWARE THERE IS BIG CHANCE OF FALSE BREAK OUT SO DONT GET TRAPPED!
HIT AT BREAK EVEN. GLAD I TOOK THE TIME TO PLACE THEM OR EVEN THOUGHT ABOUT IT.
MARKET IS VEY CLOSE TO SOME IMPORTANT RES. LEVELS LIKE 15220 AND 13800. BREAK OF WHICH WILL DEFINATELY BRING US TO HIGHER LEVELS. THE GREEK SITUATION SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN "SOLVED" ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG. NOTHING WRONG, NOTHINGS GOING ON, GO BACK TO SLEEP FOLKS. ILLUMINATI HAVE IT ALL UNDER CONTROL!! OF COURSE I DON'T BELIEVE ANYTHING OF THIS BULLSHIT AND THINK THIS COVER UP WILL ONLY HELP TEMPORARILY, INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ALL POLITICIANS ARE BLAMING THE MARKETS FOR WHAT HAPPENED TO GREECE. YEAH OF COURSE WE MADE THEM SPENDING TOO MUCH. SOCIALISM WILL BRING EUROPE DOWN EVENTUALLY.
NEVER NOTICES THAT IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, THE WORST PERFORMERS HAVE SOCIALIST GOVERNMENTS? IRELAND, HOLLNAD, UK, PORTUGAL, SPAIN. GREECE. THEY ARE EXPERTS SPENDING OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY. OK I WILL SHORT CABLE ON THE OPEN WITH A CLOSE STOP LOSS. BEWARE THERE IS BIG CHANCE OF FALSE BREAK OUT SO DONT GET TRAPPED!
Friday, March 5, 2010
OK GUYS.WORST WEEK SINCE I HAVE BEEN RUNNING THIS BLOG SINCE APRIL 1ST 2009
TOTALS REVALUATION LOSS: -604
i KEEP THE POSITIONS ANS THE TREND IS STILL DOWN. SO HOPE FULLY NEXT WEEK BETTER.
WE WEILL OPEN MONDAY WITH THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS:
-SHORT AUD/NZD 1 LOT AT 1300
-SHORT GBP/UDS 2 LOT AT 15100
-SHORT EUR/USD 4 LOT AT 13600
HAVE A GOOD WEEK END AND SEE YOU MONDAY!
TOTALS REVALUATION LOSS: -604
i KEEP THE POSITIONS ANS THE TREND IS STILL DOWN. SO HOPE FULLY NEXT WEEK BETTER.
WE WEILL OPEN MONDAY WITH THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS:
-SHORT AUD/NZD 1 LOT AT 1300
-SHORT GBP/UDS 2 LOT AT 15100
-SHORT EUR/USD 4 LOT AT 13600
HAVE A GOOD WEEK END AND SEE YOU MONDAY!
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Monday, March 1, 2010
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Friday, February 19, 2010
HEY GUYS. SORRY I WAS VERY BUSY THIS WEEK WITH SOME OTHER PROJECTS. THE POSITIONS WE HAVE HAD ALL WEK WORKED OUT WELL. I EXPECT EUR/USD AND GBP/USD TO COME MUCH LOWER AGAIN NEXT WEK. TREND IS VERY BEARISH. HENCE I REVALUED THE POSITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
EUR/USD 2 LOTS AT 1,3509 WHICH GIVES 280 POINTS PROFIT
GBP/USD 3 LOTS AT 1,5415 WHICH GIVES 750 POINTS PROFIT. IN TOTAL 1030 POINTS PROFIT FOR THE WEEK.
REMEMBER THAT AFOREMENTIONED REVALUATION PRICES ARE OUR SHORT PRICES AS FROM MONDAY!!
EUR/USD 2 LOTS AT 1,3509 WHICH GIVES 280 POINTS PROFIT
GBP/USD 3 LOTS AT 1,5415 WHICH GIVES 750 POINTS PROFIT. IN TOTAL 1030 POINTS PROFIT FOR THE WEEK.
REMEMBER THAT AFOREMENTIONED REVALUATION PRICES ARE OUR SHORT PRICES AS FROM MONDAY!!
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Friday, February 12, 2010
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Friday, February 5, 2010
OK UNEMPLOYMENT FIGS ARE DUE IN 45 MINUTES.IF THE FIGURE COMES OUT ABOVE 10K STOP YOURSELF OUT. BOTTOM IS AT 13600. SEEN THE VERY OVERSOLD CONDITION OF ALL CURRENCY PAIRS I SEE THE DOWNSIDE RISK AS LIMITED AT THIS MOMENT. THE WHOLE WORLD IS SHORT AND VERY BEARISH, ONLY OR MAINLY BECAUSE OF AN EUROPEAN COUNTRY, GREECE, ISN'T DOING WELL. REMEMBER THAT THE PROBLEMS OR GREECE AREN'T EVEN 10% AS BIG AS THE USA PROBLEMS!!
HOLD TIGHT AND GOOD LUCK...
HOLD TIGHT AND GOOD LUCK...
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Monday, February 1, 2010
Friday, January 29, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
OK GUYS, I AM GOING TO CLOSE FOR THE WEEK. WE KEEP THE CABLE SHORT POSITION OVER THE W/E. AS I HAVE TO APPRAISE FOR THE WEEKLY RESULTS WE ARE SHORT AT 16110 AND I THUS BOOKED IN A PROFIT OF 67 POINTS WHICH BRINGS OUR TOTAL PROFIT THIS WEEK TO 418 POINTS. THERE WAS MORE IN IT THIS WEEK BUT DUE TO REGULAR ABSENCE I COULD NOT PROFIT OF THOSE OPPORTUNITIES. HAVE A GOOD W/E
HI GUYS,MY DOG HAS SURVIVED HIS CRISIS AND THANK YOU FOR THE MANY FRIENDLY EMAILS I RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL OF YOU. IT CERTAINLY SUPPORTED ME MORALLY. BACK TO BUSINESS. I SLACKED A BIT THE LAST FEW DAYS AND COULD HAVE DONE MUCH BETTER UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. ANYWAYS WE ARE STILL IN A 4TH 8CORRECTIONAL WAVE UP AND FUNDAMENTALLY ITS IS CLEAR THAT THE MARKETS SQUARED SHORTS/WENT LONG AHEAD OF THE UK RETAIL SALES
IN ONE HOUR EXACTLY TO BE PRINTED. EXPECTATIONS ARE HIGH IN MY OPINION: +1,3% AGAINST -0,3% LAST TIME. I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HIGHER NUMBER THAN THIS WOULD BE PRINTED SO EXPECT RATHER THE OPPOSITE. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL WAIT AND SEE. IF A HIGHER NUMBER IS PRINTED SELL IN THE SPIKE OF THE FOLLOWING RALLY. AFTER ALL TREND IS STILL DOWN AND MARKET IS EXPECTING A GOOD NUMBER SEEN THE CURRENT PRICE LEVEL
IN ONE HOUR EXACTLY TO BE PRINTED. EXPECTATIONS ARE HIGH IN MY OPINION: +1,3% AGAINST -0,3% LAST TIME. I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HIGHER NUMBER THAN THIS WOULD BE PRINTED SO EXPECT RATHER THE OPPOSITE. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL WAIT AND SEE. IF A HIGHER NUMBER IS PRINTED SELL IN THE SPIKE OF THE FOLLOWING RALLY. AFTER ALL TREND IS STILL DOWN AND MARKET IS EXPECTING A GOOD NUMBER SEEN THE CURRENT PRICE LEVEL
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
UNFORTUNATELY WE DIDN'T GET HIT AT 14305 AS THE BID NEVER SHOWED UP AT MARKET MAKING BROKERS PLAT FORMS. AS I HAVE A DIRECT ACCESS BROKER I WAS PAID ON THE OFFER. FOR THAT REASON I DIDN'T PUBLISH THE TRADE AS "DONE" HERE ON MY BLOG. IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN DMA PLEASE CONTACT ME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK I WON'T CALL TRADES I THINK AS MY DOG IS VERY SICK AND NEEDS MY ATTENTION. SORRY!
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
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